Andrew McInnis’ CFL picks: bank on Toronto Argonauts establishing early lead

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After a disappointing 0-2 showing in Week 19, I have two selections locked and loaded for Week 20. We’re down to the final two weeks of the regular season, and while recreational bettors often say this is a difficult time to make money because of team uncertainty, I see it differently.

Situational betting becomes even more important at this stage of the season. Certain teams and players offer clear bet-on and bet-against spots, and identifying those situations can create valuable opportunities. This week, I’ve landed on one favourite and one prop bet that I believe fit the bill.

Despite the setback last week, we’re still sitting at an impressive 13-6-2 with our column picks. It’s been a successful season, and with two weeks left before the playoffs, there are still plenty of opportunities to cash tickets before the Grey Cup. Let’s get into my Week 20 selections.

Toronto Argonauts at Ottawa Redblacks

Look, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that fading the Redblacks is likely a good idea here. This team is winless this season, and they’ve been making headlines across the CFL all year long for all the wrong reasons. From staff being fired to players being cut and starting players being rotated, it’s been a horrific year for Ottawa. It’s also worth mentioning that while the Redblacks have had a handful of games that remained close through the first three quarters, they’ve repeatedly found ways to let those games slip away.

This handicap, however, isn’t as simple as fading a bad Ottawa team. The argument here is to back a well-rested, well-prepared, and healthier Toronto Argonauts team that will be looking to round into playoff form following its Week 19 bye.

There are several edges in this matchup that help explain why Toronto is laying 10.5 points on the full-game spread, but I’m electing to go with the first half at -6.5. I want to ensure I’m getting the best version of the Argonauts, and I believe we’ll see a focused Toronto team with a playoff mindset, ready to take advantage of this opportunity. The extra time off has also allowed Chad Kelly to recover and prepare for his return after missing the previous game with a hand injury. Kelly has been confirmed as the starter and returned to full participation in practice this week, giving the Argos another important advantage heading into Friday night.

There’s a real possibility this game gets out of hand, and at this stage of the season, we often see teams pull their starters when they build a comfortable lead. I don’t want to risk Toronto taking its foot off the gas in the second half if the game is already decided. By isolating the first two quarters, we’re targeting the portion of the game where I expect the Argos to have their strongest lineup on the field and their best opportunity to build a substantial lead.

Another major storyline in this matchup is Bryson Barnes making his first career CFL start. This isn’t a typical backup quarterback situation where an experienced player is stepping in for a week. Barnes has been waiting for his opportunity all season, and Ottawa has waited until now to hand him the keys to the offence. When I first heard the news, my immediate question was, “Why has it taken this long to give him a chance?” I can’t help but wonder whether there’s a reason Ottawa waited so long, perhaps because the coaching staff felt he needed more time to develop. Regardless, Barnes is now being thrown into a difficult situation.

He’ll be making his CFL starting debut against a rested Toronto team that is coming off a bye and averaging 408.3 net yards per game at 7.51 yards per play. That’s a lot to compete with for a quarterback making his first career start. Ottawa’s defence certainly won’t make his job any easier, either. The Redblacks have allowed 468.6 yards per game and 7.93 yards per play this season, ranking last in the league in both categories. If those defensive struggles continue, Barnes could find himself under pressure to keep pace with a Toronto offence that has every reason to come out firing.

This is a rare first-half play for me, but the situation checks all the boxes. Toronto is coming off a bye with extra time to rest and prepare, Kelly is back in the lineup, and Ottawa is handing the offence to an inexperienced quarterback behind a defence that has been the worst in the league. With Toronto laying 10.5 points for the full game, I want to capitalize on that advantage early rather than risk a comfortable lead leading to second-half substitutions.

The Argos are fresher, better positioned and facing an Ottawa team that has struggled throughout the season. I expect Toronto to take control early, put pressure on Barnes, and build a lead before halftime.

Pick: Argonauts First Half -6.5

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Edmonton Elks

Our second play of the week is a rushing prop, targeting Justin Rankin to go over 64.5 yards against the Blue Bombers, who have struggled against the run all season.

Winnipeg has the second-worst rushing defence in the CFL, and instead of playing a side in this game, this prop is the best way to fade the Blue Bombers. They’re allowing 112.1 rushing yards per game and 5.53 yards per carry. Rankin is averaging 5.7 yards per carry this season, and he’s already rushed for 106 and 93 yards in Edmonton’s two previous meetings with Winnipeg.

I also believe that the closer we get to the playoffs, the more important it becomes for Edmonton to establish itself as a dual-threat offence. With Cody Fajardo having success through the air, establishing Rankin on the ground will force Winnipeg to respect both sides of the offence and prevent the defence from focusing exclusively on the passing game. Rankin is averaging 64.8 rushing yards per game already, meaning he’s essentially hitting this number against the league as a whole. Against a Winnipeg defence that has consistently struggled to stop the run, I like his chances.

Pick: Justin Rankin Over 64.5 Rushing Yards

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