Andrew McInnis’ CFL Picks: Toronto can take advantage of Winnipeg’s quarterback questions

Photo: Steven Chang/B.C. Lions

The regular-season is behind us, and the CFL playoffs are finally here!

I couldn’t be more excited to handicap some meaningful Canadian football as we get set for the Division Semi-Finals. The final few weeks of the regular-season featured a handful of games with very little on the line, so it’s refreshing to have two playoff matchups with this much excitement and anticipation surrounding them.

It’s been a busy week following coach and player quotes, monitoring injury reports, and keeping an eye on the latest line movement from oddsmakers. After going 1-1 with our two plays last week, we enter the playoffs with a 15-8-2 record on our column picks. I’ve landed on three plays for this weekend, covering a side, a total, and a player prop.

Before getting into the picks, I want to thank everyone who has taken the time to read my column and follow along with the plays throughout the regular-season. I genuinely appreciate the support, and it’s been a pleasure sharing my thoughts with you each week. Now, let’s get into what I like for this weekend’s playoff action!

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Toronto Argonauts: Argonauts -4.5

Winnipeg found themselves in a ‘win-and-in’ situation last week, and they got the job done. Despite starting slowly, the Blue Bombers ran away with things and never looked back, beating a second-string B.C. Lions lineup 34-10 to punch their ticket to the playoffs and a crossover matchup against the Argos.

From a line perspective, this feels light. The majority of sportsbooks opened Toronto at -3.5, and the number has only moved one point towards the home team despite the Argos having the home-field advantage, a healthier quarterback situation and, in my opinion, the more consistent team throughout the season.

The quarterback matchup is where I see the biggest difference. Dru Brown, who has officially been named the starter for Winnipeg, entered last week’s game in place of Zach Collaros and went a perfect 11-for-11 with two touchdown passes as the team cruised to victory. Brown deserves credit for getting the job done, but the fact that this number hasn’t moved much since he was announced as taking first-team reps tells us something about the level of quarterback play we’ve seen from Winnipeg this season.

Collaros has struggled with consistency and injuries, and the market doesn’t appear to be giving Winnipeg much of a downgrade with Brown under centre. That’s a significant factor when you consider the quarterback on the other side. Chad Kelly put together another strong passing season, finishing with 5,067 yards and 33 touchdowns before signing a record-breaking contract. He gives Toronto a much higher ceiling as a passer, runner and playmaker outside the pocket.

The Argos also have the receiving depth to make life difficult for Winnipeg’s defence. Toronto led the CFL with 342.5 passing yards per game and had four receivers surpass 1,000 yards this season. That’s a lot of weapons for a defence to account for, especially when Kelly can extend plays and create opportunities when the pocket breaks down.

Toronto’s pass rush is another matchup I like. The Argos finished the regular-season with 44 sacks, led by Shawn Lemon’s nine in just 11 games and Ralph Holley’s eight. With Brown starting, that pressure could become a major problem for Winnipeg. The Bombers will need to protect their quarterback and establish some consistency offensively to keep pace.

I’m not dismissing Winnipeg. Brady Oliveira remains one of the league’s best running backs, and the Bombers still have a dangerous defence. But this isn’t the same dominant Winnipeg team we’ve become accustomed to seeing over the years. This year feels different for Winnipeg, and I’m willing to bet against them. They finished 9-9, fourth in the West, and have been far less consistent than we’re used to.

I think Toronto is the more complete team, has the better quarterback situation and is in a good position to take advantage of Winnipeg’s vulnerabilities. With home-field advantage at BMO Field, I’ll lay the 4.5 and back the Argos to advance.

Saskatchewan Roughriders at B.C. Lions: Over 58.5

Out of the two games, this is the one I’m looking forward to the most. The defending Grey Cup champions are getting 6.5 points on the road, with the total sitting at 58.5.

Although I lean towards Saskatchewan on the spread, I’ve elected to play the total. If the Roughriders are going to hang around in this game, I believe they’ll need to produce offensively, and I have little doubt the Lions will put points on the board. Overs can be intimidating in playoff games, especially with a number this high, but with these two quarterbacks and the weapons surrounding them, I expect a shootout.

Trevor Harris finished the regular-season with 5,370 passing yards and 32 touchdowns, and he has plenty of weapons at his disposal. KeeSean Johnson, Kian Schaffer-Baker, and Samuel Emilus give Saskatchewan multiple options through the air, while A.J. Ouellette provides balance in the backfield.

On the other side, Nathan Rourke has one of the league’s most explosive receiving groups, featuring Keon Hatcher, Justin McInnis, Jevon Cottoy, and Jermaine Jackson. Rourke threw for 375 yards and four touchdowns against Saskatchewan in September, and I expect the Lions to have similar success moving the football.

Both offences averaged more than 27 points per game this season, and I don’t see either having to carry this total on its own. If one team gets rolling early, the other has more than enough firepower to respond.

The kicking game is another positive, with Sean Whyte and Brett Lauther both providing reliable options when drives stall. With the game being played in a dome at BC Place, weather won’t be a factor. It’s also worth noting that field goals can help an Over, especially with kickers as accurate as these two. A made field goal adds points to the board, and gives the opposing offence another opportunity to respond with great field position.

I expect an entertaining playoff matchup with plenty of offensive production on both sides. Give me the Over 58.5.

Saskatchewan Roughriders at B.C. Lions: Trevor Harris Over 318.5 Passing Yards

I couldn’t do a column for this weekend without mentioning a prop that caught my eye, and this Harris passing prop makes perfect sense. I already like the Over 58.5 in this game, and I expect Saskatchewan to be playing from behind for stretches, forcing the Riders to lean more heavily on the passing game.

Harris finished the regular-season with 5,370 passing yards and 32 touchdowns, averaging 316 passing yards per game. While I like A.J. Ouellette and what he brings to the offence, Saskatchewan has too many talented receiving options to shy away from the passing game in this matchup. KeeSean Johnson, Kian Schaffer-Baker, Dhel Duncan-Busby, and Samuel Emilus give Harris plenty of weapons to work with, and I expect the Riders to lean on that group if they’re chasing points.

B.C. was an average pass defence this season, allowing 284.2 yards per game, so this isn’t a matchup that scares me away. With the Lions capable of putting up points and Saskatchewan likely needing to keep pace, I like Harris to get plenty of opportunities to clear 318.5 yards.

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