Adam Chernoff’s CFL picks: Mike O’Shea lacks understanding of basic math

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Last week was painful sitting on the Blue Bombers and Roughriders under 57.5. The game was a stone cold under for 60 minutes before a penalty extended Winnipeg’s drive and a snap with zeroes on the clock turned into a touchdown, which led to a Riders touchdown in overtime to put the game over by half-a-point. Such is life betting a CFL under.

Onto the quadruple-header Saturday of some rematches.

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Saskatchewan Roughriders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Last week finishes in an under 75-80 percent of the time based on the game state we had entering the fourth quarter. Rematches this close in scheduling tend to lean under. This game has the chance of wind in the mid-20 kilometre per hour range, which will have an impact on deep ball passes. I’ll go under again.

For the side. These two teams are simply not equal and the price in the rematch gives us nearly a pick’em which I disagree with. Late professional money last week was on the Roughriders betting the number up in the final minutes from -4.5 to -6. Give me the Roughriders.

Saskatchewan out-gained the Blue Bombers by 2.1 yards per play and by 160 yards in total output last week. The game was not close despite what the scoreboard shows. Corey Mace knows the Bombers offence and its limitations too well. The only time we have seen Winnipeg have a good output with Zach Collaros healthy this season was against a heavy blitz and man defence of Montreal. It’s not what these Riders run defensively. We saw how well they can neutralize Brady Oliveira last week and without him this Bombers offence lacks efficiency.

This is also a significant mismatch in coaching intelligence and basic football fundamentals. Mace handled the end game scenario, going for two up seven after the score, with common sense. Mike O’Shea, on the other hand, seems to lack understanding of basic math and probability in his 16th season, not going for two and the win — then defending it post-game. I will take the better coach in a near pick’em every time.

Picks: Saskatchewan Roughriders -120, under 57

Montreal Alouettes at BC Lions

Speaking of coaching mismatches. I will happily take Jason Maas and the Montreal Alouettes as underdogs at plus money against Buck Pierce and the BC Lions. The buzz word this week is revenge and the impact of travel. I don’t think any of it matters as much as it is being made out to be. These teams played the early game last week on Friday and end up in the late slot this Saturday.

Bottom line for me in this game is that Pierce is one of the most passive and risk-averse play callers this league has ever seen. His willingness to settle for field goal attempts rather than playing to win utilizing the skill set of the best quarterback in the league is shocking. Last week on the road as underdogs against the Alouettes, they settled for five consecutive field goal attempts. That is not how you beat an offence as dominant and a defence as opportunistic as the Alouettes.

Pick: Montreal Alouettes +120

Season record: 15-8 (+6.55x)

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