3DownNation CFL best bets: Week 18

Photo: Tanner Piper/3DownNation. All rights reserved.

The calendar has flipped to October, which means we are into the final month of the CFL regular season, and there is still a lot on the line for these teams.

Some are playing for a ticket to the dance, others are hoping to host a playoff game, while one team is just looking to just get into the win column. That is where we are going to start as we look at three plays from two games this week.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Ottawa Redblacks — Friday, October 2 at 7:00 p.m. EDT

The Ottawa Redblacks continue their quest for win number one this year as they take on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in our nation’s capital.

Ottawa’s playoff hopes have long been dashed (although, in next year’s playoff format, they’d still be mathematically alive), but they have a lot to play for as they look to end this long losing streak.

Hamilton has also struggled this year and is in a tailspin now, having lost five games in a row. Now, using “Hey, look at this losing streak” as a reason to pick against a team playing Ottawa doesn’t seem like the best strategy, but the stats don’t give us a lot to work with here.

The one thing that has me believing in the winless wonders is the play of McLeod Bethel-Thompson. MBT has brought life to the Redblacks’ passing attack with at least 379 passing yards in back-to-back games. He also has seven TD passes in the last two weeks and just two interceptions.

Hamilton has an eye to the future as well, and while no team wants to be the “1” in 1-14, they really have not played that well as of late. I think Ottawa’s desperation and quality QB play are going to be enough to get them in the win column for the first time this year.

Pick: Ottawa +1.5

Calgary Stampeders at Saskatchewan Roughriders — Friday, October 2 at 9:30 p.m. EDT

Western rivals meet in Regina as the Roughriders play host to the Calgary Stampeders.

Saskatchewan is limping into this matchup after back-to-back losses to the Bombers and Lions, which made the West race very interesting with just one month remaining. Meanwhile, Calgary is riding the least impressive two-game win streak in history after back-to-back victories over Ottawa.

These two teams have been difficult to figure out, so I’m going to try something a bit more predictable this week: Touchdown Tommy.

In a sentence I never thought I’d write, Tommy Stevens is one rushing touchdown away from tying George Reed for the most in a single season by a Saskatchewan Roughrider. What better team to do that against than the team that let him go a couple of years ago?

Earlier this year, Stevens got a measure of revenge when he plowed into the end zone a couple of times against Calgary in Saskatchewan’s 40-37 win over the Stamps.

Stevens has gone back-to-back games without a rushing TD, which matches his longest scoring drought of the season. I don’t think Corey Mace and the Riders let that stretch to three, and I think they’ll get it done early.

I also feel like Calgary’s pass defence is just what the doctor ordered for Saskatchewan to get their offence on track, so I like the home side in this game.

Pick: Tommy Stevens anytime in the first half TD (+130) AND Saskatchewan -5.0