3DownNation CFL best bets: Division Semi-Finals

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It is the best time of year: playoff time in the Canadian Football League.

Six teams remain as the push toward the Grey Cup in Calgary enters win-or-go-home territory.

We have two games to dive into, so let’s begin.

Eligible sports bettors in Ontario and Alberta can find relevant information for wagering on the games by clicking on their respective jurisdiction. Please bet responsibly.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Toronto Argonauts — Saturday, October 31 at 1:00 p.m. EDT

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers cross over into the East portion of the bracket to take on the Toronto Argonauts.

Winnipeg needed a win in their last game to keep their Grey Cup hopes alive. For three quarters, it wasn’t looking good, then Dru Brown stepped up following an injury to Zach Collaros and gave Winnipeg the spark they needed to get into the postseason.

While the QB position has seen some turnover this year with Zach Collaros and Dru Brown splitting time, one constant for the Bombers has been Brady Oliveira in the backfield. Oliveira finished as the league’s leading rusher with over 1,400 yards on the ground.

That season total was boosted by his performance in Week 17, when he went off for 139 yards. Teams have been able to exploit Toronto’s run defence all season long, with the Argos allowing the third-most rushing yards per game this year. I expect that Oliveira will be able to have another good day against the Boatmen in the East Semi-Final this weekend.

The problem with that Week 17 game for Winnipeg is that Oliveira performance came in a losing effort, which was a problem for the Bombers when they faced some of the better teams in the league. Winnipeg’s 9-9 record was beefed up by their performance against teams who didn’t qualify for the postseason this year.

Winnipeg went 4-7 against the six teams that advanced to the playoffs, including a win last week against a Lions club that was resting most of its starters. Now, to be fair, one of those wins was also against the Argos. But it was a home game for Winnipeg, which is the other layer to my issue with the Bombers this weekend.

As mentioned before, the Bombers beat the Lions in B.C. last weekend. That was Winnipeg’s only road win against a team that made the playoffs this season. In games where the other team was actually trying to win, Winnipeg’s only road wins were against Ottawa, Hamilton, and Calgary.

I expect the Argos to continue this trend and hand the Bombers their second straight East Semi-Final loss.

Pick: Toronto -4.5, Brady Oliveira OVER 79.5 rushing yards

Saskatchewan Roughriders at B.C. Lions — Saturday, October 31 at 4:30 p.m. EDT

The defending Grey Cup champion Saskatchewan Roughriders head into B.C. looking to end the Lions’ season for the third year in a row.

This year feels different compared to the last two, as Saskatchewan limped down the stretch with a 2-4 post-Labour Day record. Those two wins were against the backups for Montreal and Edmonton.

The Lions went the opposite direction, winning four games in a row following Labour Day weekend. They lost their last two, but the focus for the Lions in those games was more on getting their guys healthy than it was on getting wins.

The biggest part of that performance was Nathan Rourke, who rode a strong second half to a West Division All-CFL selection. Rourke had over 300 yards passing in 11 of the 13 games that he started and finished this year.

That includes three very good games against the Riders. Rourke averaged 353 passing yards in his three matchups against Saskatchewan, with six TDs in the last two games. Performances like that left Saskatchewan in the bottom third of passing yards allowed per game, and they have the worst passing defence of the teams that made it to the postseason.

Rourke’s passing yards number is quite high at 355.5, which normally would scare me away. But Rourke is on another level right now, and he’ll be looking to make a statement against the Riders. I think he’ll put up a signature performance this week and send the Lions to the West Final.

Pick: Rourke OVER 355.5 passing yards