Andrew McInnis’ CFL picks: back motivated Blue Bombers at home in Week 17

Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Week 17 already; where has the time gone? It’s been a great season of CFL football, and an even better season of betting on the CFL. Since starting with 3DownNation, our article picks now move to 11-3-1 after cashing last week with the Ottawa Redblacks +8.

This week, we have two side plays to offer: one situational play and one favourite we believe is getting just a bit too much respect. So, let’s dive into what stood out this week.

Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers 

The Argonauts visit the Blue Bombers for some Week 17 action, and I’m backing the home team to come out on top. There are a few things that go into liking this play, but I’ll start with Dru Brown.

Brown was officially announced as the starting quarterback this week for the Bombers with Collaros out injured, but this is something anyone who follows the league closely already knew was coming. I mean no disrespect to Collaros, but in this particular matchup, I don’t think it’s a huge dip in quarterback play, and it’s not enough to get me off the Bombers side.

Collaros has been solid this season, but this hasn’t exactly been his best year. He’s completed 70.6 percent of his passes for 2,204 yards, 11 touchdowns, and six interceptions. That’s a respectable season, but it’s not the version of Collaros that makes me think Winnipeg suddenly can’t win without him in the lineup, especially with the skill players they have throughout the roster.

Brown has already proven he can operate the Winnipeg offence just fine. He went 2-2 in his four starts earlier this season, including a win over this very Argos team in July, when he threw for 339 yards.

Brown doesn’t have numbers that fly off the page, but I don’t think Winnipeg needs him to be special for them to win. They have enough playmakers to make the big plays. He just needs to limit the mistakes, make his reads, and distribute the ball like he’s capable of.

The biggest factor in this handicap is a pretty strong one: where these teams stand in the playoff race.

Toronto clinched a playoff spot with its 24-19 win over Edmonton last week and has secured a home playoff game. The Argos are unlikely to move any higher in the standings, while Winnipeg is still fighting for its playoff life.

I’m not going to pretend the Argos will just show up and not care to compete, but I am prepared to say that it’s clear this game will mean more to one team than the other.

Winnipeg has been stepping up lately. The Bombers beat Montreal 44-28 before holding Saskatchewan to just six points in the Banjo Bowl. That defensive performance is particularly important here because Chad Kelly is going to give them problems.

Kelly has been outstanding statistically, leading the CFL in passing yards and touchdowns, but he also leads the league in interceptions. He’s an aggressive quarterback who is willing to take chances, and Winnipeg’s defence has shown lately that it can make an offence work for everything.

The Bombers don’t need to completely shut down Toronto, but they need to make Kelly work for his explosive plays and force him into some difficult decisions. If Winnipeg can do that while getting enough out of Brown and the running game, I think they have a very good chance to win this one at home.

The line has moved toward Toronto since Brown was announced, and I’m completely fine with that. I expected the move, but I don’t think it changes the way I see this matchup.

Winnipeg is at home, they have far more to play for, and Brown has already shown he can beat this Toronto team.

Pick: Winnipeg Blue Bombers +1.5 (-110)

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Edmonton Elks

This handicap is different, but very simple. Edmonton is clearly the better football team, but laying 8.5 points asks a different question. The question stops being, “Will Edmonton win this game comfortably?” and becomes, “Can they win by a considerable margin?”

Edmonton is 10-4, but only four of those wins have come by nine or more points. Six victories have been decided by eight or fewer, including margins of three, five, two, two, and three points. That tells us Edmonton can be the better team without blowing a team out.

Three of their last four wins have come by double digits, but those results came against Toronto and Calgary twice. This is a different matchup and a different number.

Hamilton is a team I’m betting on hanging around. Now, don’t get me wrong, the Ticats just lost by 12 to the Alouettes, so it’s not like they aren’t capable of getting blown out. But I trust their ability to put up points on this Edmonton team, and their defence has been their strongest point of the season.

Hamilton’s defence is why I’m willing to take the points. The ‘Cats have played strong defence for much of the season and have shown they can keep quality offences in check when they play to their strengths.

Meanwhile, Edmonton has allowed some big plays defensively, giving Hamilton a path to generate enough offence to keep this tight enough for us to cash this ticket.

This isn’t a bet on Hamilton, but more a bet against Edmonton at this number. The Elks can absolutely win this game, but they are being asked to win by a margin they haven’t consistently produced this season.

While everyone is ready to wave the flag on the Tiger-Cats, I see value on them from a point-spread perspective that I’m ready to take advantage of this weekend.

Pick: Hamilton Tiger-Cats +8.5