Andrew McInnis’ CFL picks: B.C. Lions could threaten Winnipeg’s big moment

Photo courtesy: Zachary Peters/B.C. Lions

Well, here we are, our last column of the 2026 regular season. Time really does fly when you’re having fun, or, in our case, when you’re cashing tickets.

Following last week’s 1-1 record, we enter Week 21 sitting at 14-7-2. While many fans and bettors will check out in the final week of the season and tell you these games have very little meaning, the betting market is still wide awake, with several opportunities to find value. This week, I’ve selected two plays for us: one side and one total.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at B.C. Lions

There’s a saying in sports betting: “Must win doesn’t mean will win.” While I don’t think the Blue Bombers are going to lose this game, I’m not convinced that just because this is a “win-and-in” scenario means they’re going to win it with ease.

It’s no secret the Bombers are playing for their season. Beat the Lions, and they’re in the playoffs. Lose, and they’re cleaning out their lockers until next year. B.C. has already secured a home game in the Western Semi-Final and is making significant lineup changes with next week in mind. Nobody watching or betting this game has to dig very deep to figure out which team has more on the line, but what concerns me more is the movement in the point spread.

Winnipeg opened as a 4.5-point favourite before moving as high as -7.5 at some shops following the news surrounding B.C.’s lineup. I understand why the market is moving, but I’ve seen this story before, and it’s never as easy as it seems for the team with everything on the line.

If you’re looking to bet the Bombers, you’ve missed the value. If you had interest in backing the Lions, the market has pushed this game to a number I’m more than happy to get behind.

Kaidon Salter gets the start, while Nathan Rourke will dress in an emergency role and Chris Oladokun could see his first CFL action. Keon Hatcher Sr. and Justin McInnis are also out. These are significant changes, but they’re also baked into the point spread. The oddsmakers know everything we know about these lineup changes, and I still see value in taking the points.

The Bombers put themselves in this position. Across all sports, when teams find themselves in must-win spots, it usually means they haven’t played well enough to avoid them. Winnipeg has the roster advantage, but that doesn’t make this a team I trust to blow anyone out right now.

Look at the Bombers’ last two games. Against Calgary, Zach Collaros threw for 349 yards and two touchdowns, while a kickoff return touchdown helped Winnipeg build a 24-9 lead. They eventually won 33-28. Last week against Edmonton, they led 21-10 late in the first half before surrendering the lead and losing 35-27.

The offence has shown it can move the ball, but Winnipeg has struggled to maintain control. That’s a concern when you’re being asked to lay seven points.

The biggest concern with B.C. is obvious. Salter is leading an offence with significant personnel changes, and there are plenty of questions about how effectively the Lions can move the ball. However, we’ve already seen what his mobility can do against this Winnipeg defence. In July, Salter rushed for 160 yards on 10 carries in a 35-19 B.C. win, with the Lions finishing with 377 rushing yards as a team.

I’m not expecting a repeat of that performance, especially with the personnel and backfield workload looking different this time around. Still, Winnipeg’s struggles against the run are worth noting. Edmonton just rushed for 212 yards at 6.4 yards per carry against the Bombers. The Elks also put together a 13-play, 95-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter, with 11 runs along the way.

B.C. doesn’t need to replicate its July performance to make this competitive. If the Lions can find some success on the ground and keep the Bombers from pulling away, they have a legitimate chance to cover this number.

The handicap is clear here. Do I love backing a team led by Kaidon Salter? Absolutely not. Do I see a game where the Lions have enough pieces to make a difference against a Winnipeg team that has proven it can’t be trusted to close games consistently? I absolutely do.

I’m not willing to lay seven points with a Winnipeg team that has struggled to close out games. The Bombers might get the win they need, but I’m not paying this price to find out if they can do it comfortably.

Pick: Lions +7

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Edmonton Elks

This play is a bit different. Edmonton has already secured a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the Western Final, while Saskatchewan still has playoff implications to consider. With both teams making quarterback changes, I see an opportunity to fade the uncertainty surrounding the offences.

As much as I enjoy being contrarian and not overreacting to news, this is a move I completely understand. The total has dropped from 54.5 to 51.5, and I agree with the market adjustment given the lineup changes on both sides. With backup quarterbacks starting and key players being rested, I expect this game to lack some of the offensive rhythm we would typically see. Even with the market moving three points, I still see value on the under at 51.5.

Saskatchewan has confirmed Jack Coan will start in place of Trevor Harris, giving Coan his first career CFL start. Edmonton is also expected to turn to Taylor Powell. Neither offence will have its usual starting quarterback, and I’m not convinced either replacement will be able to maintain the same level of consistency.

Weather is another factor here. The forecast calls for cold temperatures and windy conditions in Regina, which could make life difficult for both passing games. We saw the impact of crosswinds in Saskatchewan’s 16-12 win over Montreal last week, when kickers struggled to find their range. If similar conditions materialize on Saturday, they could make it more difficult for both offences to put points on the board.

Edmonton has little left to gain in the regular season, giving the Elks every reason to manage their roster carefully ahead of the playoffs. Saskatchewan still has something to play for, but the decision to sit Harris shows the Roughriders are also prioritizing the health of their veteran quarterback. Harris wasn’t happy with the decision, but the Riders stood by it.

There are reasons to be cautious, particularly with Edmonton averaging 34.2 points per game over its last five. The Elks have been scoring consistently, and even with lineup changes, we can’t simply assume their offence will grind to a halt.

With backup quarterbacks on both sides, cold and windy conditions in the forecast, and Edmonton having little left to gain in the regular season, I see enough reasons to expect a lower-scoring game. I’m not expecting either offence to completely stall, but I don’t need that to happen to cash this under.

Pick: Under 51.5