3DownNation CFL best bets: Week 21

Montreal Alouettes

It is the final week of the CFL regular season, and that brings a lot of uncertainty.

The CFL is a very unpredictable league at the best of times, but this week we have a lot of players getting rested, with even more likely to sit after a series or two as we head towards the postseason next week.

With that in mind, I have a couple of plays to look at this week to see if we can take advantage of the chaos.

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Montreal Alouettes at Toronto Argonauts — Friday, October 23 at 7:00 p.m. EDT

Two playoff-bound teams meet in Toronto, as the Argos face the East-leading Alouettes to kick off the final week of the CFL season.

Both teams are going to be resting plenty of key players ahead of the postseason. Montreal won’t be sitting as many as Toronto, but the quality of those getting the week off for the Alouettes is still very high.

That leaves this game in a tricky spot to handicap. One edge I think we can look at is the total, which sits at 51.5. That number would likely be close to 60 if everyone were healthy and in the lineup, but this game is lacking some significant firepower.

On the Montreal side, Dustin Crum gets the start at QB with no Tyson Philpot or Tyler Snead to throw to. Crum has plenty of CFL experience, so one would assume that he could thrive in a game where the rosters look more like preseason squads than playoff ones. However, CFL experience and good CFL experience are two different things.

Crum got plenty of opportunities under centre in Ottawa over the past few seasons, as well as getting into the game last week against Saskatchewan. But he hasn’t thrown more than one TD pass in a game since 2023, and hasn’t struck me as someone who can put together a big game.

On the other side, Tucker Horn will be making his first career CFL start after seeing limited action last year. He gets the nod behind an offensive line that will be filled with backup options as well, with Toronto making sure everyone is healthy heading into the East Semi-Final next weekend.

With all of the inexperience at the QB spot and everywhere else on the field, I don’t see this being a game that gives us a ton of points.

Pick: Under 51.5

Ottawa Redblacks at Hamilton Tiger-Cats — Saturday, October 24 at 3:00 p.m. EDT

While the majority of the league grapples with the best way to handle a game that doesn’t mean anything in the playoff picture, the Redblacks and Ticats have been living that reality for some time now.

Obviously, this season hasn’t gone according to plan on either side. For Hamilton, this year had high expectations that were dashed the moment Bo Levi Mitchell went down with an injury, while Ottawa was stuck in a season-long funk until last week’s win over Toronto.

Bryson Barnes appears to have been the spark that Ottawa has been hoping for at QB, as he led this team to their first win of the year. It is strange to say this about a one-win team, but it actually feels like that could be a late-season morale boost that can get players going in an otherwise meaningless spot.

Combine that with new president Mike Morreale taking a close look at the organization that he just took over, and it feels like we should get a stronger performance from Ottawa to close out their year.

There has been no such boost in Hamilton, as the Ticats have lost six of their last seven, with their one win coming against Ottawa. They feel more like a team that is ready for this season to be over.

These are all professionals, so questioning the motivations and efforts of the players doesn’t feel great. But we all know that this time of year can do different things to different players. I just think the feel on the Ottawa side right now gives them an edge this week over Hamilton.

Pick: Ottawa +4.5