Andrew McInnis’ CFL picks: Winnipeg plus the points, East Final same game parlay

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The hype is building in the CFL playoffs as we’re down to the final four teams competing for a Grey Cup championship.

After an exciting opening Saturday of postseason action that included an upset, I couldn’t be more excited for what should be two excellent division finals.

It’s been another busy week digging into the matchups, following reports, analyzing the betting market and narrowing down my opinions. After an unfortunate loss on the Argos -4.5, we bounced back with a 1-1 record in the Riders-Lions matchup, finishing 1-2 on the weekend and bringing our season record to 16-10-2.

This Saturday features two very different matchups. First, in a game we didn’t see coming, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers visit the Montreal Alouettes. Then, in the main event we’ve been waiting for, the B.C. Lions travel to Edmonton to take on the Elks.

For this week’s column, I’ve got one side play I’m jumping on, along with a three-leg same-game parlay at a great price, both available at BET99.

 

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes

I’m happy to grab the points with Winnipeg in this spot. Montreal has been the standard of the league all season long and enter as the Grey Cup favourite, but I’ll go back to what I’ve been saying all year: in sports betting you have to bet numbers, not teams. This number is simply too big for me to pass up on the underdog.

Look, I get it. If you’re like me and lost on the Argos -4.5 last week, it might be tough to jump back in on the Bombers after the way they played against Toronto. But I’d encourage you to look at it differently. Winnipeg turned the ball over several times in the first half, struggled to convert in key moments and still found a way to win. The public perception of this team is understandably low, but that’s exactly why I’m interested in this number.

I don’t want to take anything away from Montreal, either. The Alouettes were outstanding all season, finishing 14-4, averaging a league-best 34.7 points per game, while going undefeated at home. They’re deserving favourites and have been one of the most complete teams in the CFL. However, there’s a difference between being the better team and being worth laying more than a touchdown against. I think this spread is simply too wide.

Montreal also comes into this game having not played since Friday, October 23, giving them 15 days between their final regular-season game and the Eastern Final. That extra time is certainly beneficial for preparation and recovery, but there’s always a question of whether a team can maintain its rhythm after such a long layoff. Winnipeg, meanwhile, is coming off a playoff game last weekend and should have a little more momentum.

The biggest question for Winnipeg is obviously what they get from Dru Brown at quarterback. He had a difficult afternoon against Toronto, throwing two interceptions and losing a fumble, and there were stretches where the offence struggled to find consistency. However, when the game was on the line, Brown delivered, leading the Bombers on a late touchdown drive to take the lead with 44 seconds remaining.

I expect a better performance from him this week. He now has another week of preparation as the starter, and I have confidence in a veteran coaching staff that knows what’s required in these situations. Mike O’Shea and his staff have been through plenty of big playoff games, and I expect them to have a better plan in place for Brown against Montreal. He doesn’t need to be spectacular, but Winnipeg needs a more composed performance from its quarterback if the Bombers are going to stay competitive.

Defence wins games, but it can be especially valuable when you’re getting more than a touchdown. Winnipeg has the personnel to make life difficult for Davis Alexander and the Montreal offence. The Blue Bombers finished the regular season leading the CFL with 77 pass knockdowns while allowing 274.8 passing yards per game, the second-fewest in the league. That’s an encouraging matchup against an Alouettes offence that relies heavily on moving the football through the air.

Brady Oliveira’s status is another important factor. He’s listed as questionable, and his availability could have a significant impact on Winnipeg’s offensive approach. When healthy, Oliveira is one of the most productive running backs in the league, finishing the season with a CFL-best 1,493 rushing yards. If he’s able to go, he gives the Bombers another way to control the game, keep Montreal’s offence off the field and take some pressure off Brown.

Ultimately, I respect how good Montreal has been this season, especially at home, but I’m not being asked to pick the winner. I’m being asked to decide whether the Alouettes can win by more than a touchdown, and I don’t think the gap between these teams is quite as large as this number suggests. I’ll happily take the points with Winnipeg.

 

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes: SGP

Going back to the East Final matchup, there’s an opportunity to cash in with a three-leg same game parlay. I like the potential game script here. We’re already backing Winnipeg to keep this game within the number, and if Montreal gets out in front, Brown could be forced to throw more frequently as the game progresses. With Montreal’s offence having so many weapons, I also want to get a piece of their passing attack.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers +8.5

Montreal has been outstanding all season, but 15 days off heading into a playoff game is a long layoff. Winnipeg should have a little more rhythm after playing last weekend, and I think the combination of the extended layoff and the size of this spread create an opportunity to back the underdog. I’ll gladly take the cushion.

Dru Brown 250+ passing yards

The size of this spread tells us what we all know, the Blue Bombers will likely be chasing the game, and if the Alouettes get out in front, Brown is going to have to throw the football and make plays to keep the Bombers within striking distance. He had some struggles against Toronto last week, but I expect him to build on that experience with another week of preparation. He also has a veteran coaching staff behind him that knows how to prepare for these big playoff games. I expect a better game plan and enough passing volume to give Brown a shot at clearing 250 yards.

Tyler Snead 70+ receiving yards

Davis Alexander was named the CFL’s Most Outstanding Player after an incredible season, and he’s shown all year that he can find just about anyone in this Montreal receiving corps. Tyson Philpot was also named Most Outstanding Canadian and is Montreal’s top receiving option. But for this play, I want to go to the second option in Snead.

With Philpot likely attracting the most attention from Winnipeg’s secondary, Snead could benefit from less coverage and more opportunities underneath. He’s already put up 224 receiving yards and three touchdowns across two meetings with Winnipeg this season, going over 100 yards in both games. I like his chances of getting involved again, and 70+ receiving yards is a number I’m comfortable targeting.