Andrew McInnis’ CFL picks: B.C. Lions’ hot streak creates value on Montreal Alouettes

Montreal Alouettes

It’s Labour Day Weekend in the CFL, which usually means great matchups, packed stadiums, and intensity from start to finish. Last week, we cashed our only play on Toronto +4.5, continuing our success with this weekly column and finding another number we liked.

This week, we’re back with one side and one total: a Friday night side and a Monday total. We’ve been seeing the board well, and this is one of my favourite times of the year for CFL betting.

Let’s keep it rolling and have another great week. Enjoy the Labour Day Weekend games, everyone!

B.C. Lions at Montreal Alouettes

The case for Montreal -3.5 is pretty simple. B.C. has won five straight, and Nathan Rourke is playing excellent football, so I understand why the Lions have earned plenty of respect. But I think that recent success has helped create an opportunity to take Montreal at home at a number I really like.

The Alouettes are 9-2, Davis Alexander is good to go, and they’re 6-0 at home this season. Alexander put any remaining questions about his availability to bed this week, telling reporters, “I’ll be ready to go. 100 percent.” That’s the biggest factor for me.

Montreal averages 39.3 points per game at Percival Molson Stadium and has scored at least 31 in every home game this season. The Alouettes just got embarrassed in Winnipeg, ending their seven-game winning streak, and now return home. I don’t need to lean too heavily on the generic “off a loss” angle. I simply expect a response from a team that has been excellent in this building all season.

There’s also no shortage of motivation coming off that Winnipeg loss. Alexander described that game as a “playoff atmosphere” and admitted the emotions got the best of him at times, noting that the teams “don’t like each other.” Now the focus shifts to B.C., and I expect a much cleaner performance from Montreal at home.

That’s exactly why I like the number. We’re getting Montreal -3.5 after B.C. has picked up all this recent success. The Lions have gone from a team nobody wanted to talk about to one of the hottest teams in the CFL, and I think that has helped create a number where we can step in front of them with the Alouettes at home.

This is also the toughest test B.C. has faced during its winning streak. The Lions just played in Ottawa and now have to travel to Montreal to face a 9-2 team that hasn’t lost in its own building.

I don’t need B.C.’s five-game winning streak to be a fluke, and I don’t need Rourke to have a bad game. I just need Montreal to be the better team in its own building.

At -3.5, I think that’s a great number. I’ll take the Alouettes.

Pick: Alouettes -3.5

Edmonton Elks at Calgary Stampeders

The total is sitting at 58.5, and I believe that number is simply too low. I see multiple paths to a high-scoring game without needing anything particularly unusual to happen. I’ve mostly been playing sides lately, but this is one of those spots where the total stuck out like a sore thumb. Two teams with a ton of weapons, QBs that can sling it, and defences I don’t overly trust.

If you’re betting an Over in the CFL this season, the Stamps have been one of the best teams to do it with. Heading into Week 14, Calgary has an 8-3 O/U record, and their games have been absolute shootouts on a weekly basis. The Stampeders also have a current 9-0 Over run as an underdog and an 8-0 Over run against teams with a winning record.

Calgary has been one of the CFL’s most productive offences this season, averaging 36.9 points per game, while Edmonton is averaging 29.4. The Elks have put up 4,511 total yards through 11 games, good for 410.1 per game, while Calgary is averaging 361.2. Both offences have shown the ability to move the football through the air and on the ground, giving us multiple ways to get over this number.

The quarterback situation in Calgary doesn’t concern me. I’m going into this assuming Vernon Adams Jr. is under centre, and I think the point spread tells us all we need to know. With this game essentially sitting at a pick’em, the market is effectively pricing the matchup as if Adams is going to play, and I’m comfortable making the same assumption.

Rather than viewing Adams’ absence last week as a major concern, I see it as Calgary giving its quarterback an extra week of rest before one of the biggest games on the schedule. If Adams does return as expected, that only raises the ceiling for a Calgary offence already averaging nearly 37 points per game.

The defensive numbers also give me plenty of confidence in the Over. Calgary is allowing 31.8 points per game, which is significant when paired with an Edmonton offence averaging nearly 30 points itself. The Stampeders have surrendered 1,289 rushing yards this season, while Edmonton is averaging 110.4 rushing yards per game. If the Elks can establish the run, it should create opportunities for Cody Fajardo and the passing game as well.

The rest situation is another major factor. Edmonton is coming off a bye and will have had 17 days between games by the time it takes the field Monday. That gives Fajardo and the offence plenty of time to recover, prepare and make adjustments. We’ve already seen the ceiling of this Edmonton offence, with the Elks putting up 42 points against Toronto earlier this season. Calgary is rested as well, with nine days between its win over Hamilton and Monday night’s game.

Most importantly, I expect this to be a close game. The spread is essentially a pick’em, which is exactly what I want to see when betting an Over this high. We don’t need a blowout, and we don’t need garbage-time points to bail us out. We need two competitive teams trading points and remaining aggressive into the fourth quarter.

At 58.5, we’re asking for an average of just 29.25 points per team. Edmonton is already averaging 29.4 points per game, while Calgary is well above that mark at 36.9.

I’m expecting a Labour Day Classic with plenty of offensive fireworks. The number is telling us we need 59 points, and I believe these two offences can get us there.

Pick: Over 58.5