3DownNation CFL best bets: Week 14

Photo courtesy: Saskatchewan Roughriders/Electric Umbrella/Liam Richards

It is Labour Day Weekend, which means big rivalry games with big stakes in the Canadian Football League.

This week, I’m focusing on the three classic rivalry games as we look to bounce back from last week’s 1-2 disappointment.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Saskatchewan Roughriders — Sunday, September 6 at 7:00 p.m. EDT

The Saskatchewan Roughriders are looking for back-to-back home wins as they take on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Sunday evening in the prairies.

The Riders got off to a slow start last week, but they halted their two-game slide, keeping them two points up on Winnipeg for second place in the West Division. Saskatchewan had plenty of positive moments in that game, but it is still clear injuries are holding this team back.

Meanwhile, Winnipeg picked up their best win of the season last week against Montreal, beating the Als 44-28. If you have followed my picks all season long, you’ll know that I haven’t been the highest on the Bombers this year, but that is a real win and one that I think will give them momentum heading into this Labour Day clash.

Obviously, the players and coaches have changed over the years, but this has been a rivalry game that has been very close in recent memory. Five of the last six Labour Day weekend games between these two have been decided by four points or fewer.

If this week’s game is just as close as those ones, it will continue a trend for the Riders, who have played in several close games this year. Five of Saskatchewan’s seven wins have been by five points or fewer. The two outliers are games against Hamilton and Ottawa, which we’ve established Winnipeg is better than at this point.

You know the atmosphere in Regina is going to be intense, and I think they’ll be treated to another very close game to kick off the rivalry portion of Labour Day Weekend.

Pick: Winnipeg +5

Toronto Argonauts at Hamilton Tiger-Cats — Monday, September 7 at 2:30 p.m. EDT

The Battle of Ontario will start things off on Monday as Hamilton hosts Toronto, with the home side in desperate need of a win.

The Ticats are two points back of Toronto for second in the East and four points back of Winnipeg in the crossover, with both of those teams having a game in hand. Now would be a good time for Hamilton to halt their two-game losing streak.

They are facing an Argos team that blew a 22-7 lead last week in Regina and have lost two of their last three, helping Hamilton stay around in the East playoff race.

So much of this game is going to come down to the battle between Chad Kelly and Hamilton’s defence. It has been a frustrating year in Hamilton, but the team’s defence is doing all they can to help fix it. They have the third-best net defence in the CFL, powered by a passing defence that is second in the league in yards allowed per game.

Combine that with a Hamilton offence that has only put up 25 points once since Canada Day, and I think you have a recipe for an under to get Labour Day Monday started.

Pick: Under 58.5 Points

Edmonton Elks at Calgary Stampeders — Monday, September 7 at 6:00 p.m. EDT

The Battle of Alberta is in its traditional spot as the finale on Labour Day weekend, with the West-leading Elks facing the Stampeders who currently reside in the basement of the division.

It has been a difficult season in Calgary, with injuries and inconsistency plaguing the team. And yet, they still sit two points back of B.C. and Winnipeg for the last playoff spot in the West. This, along with every other game the rest of the way, is massive for them.

One thing we’ve been able to count on this season is that games featuring the Stamps are going to give the scoreboard a workout. The total for this game is 58.5. If this game goes under that, it would be just their third game to come up short of that mark this season.

The concern is that two of those three games are their two most recent ones, where their offence has been banged up. Last week, they were missing Vernon Adams Jr., which may be an issue again this week, but he seemed very close to returning last week before a late decision kept him out of the lineup.

Even if VA isn’t good to go, the over is still a viable play this week. Last week’s Calgary game came in at 51 points, and that was featuring a Tiger-Cats offence that is dealing with its own injuries and inconsistencies. Edmonton does not have these issues.

Before last week’s game against Winnipeg, Edmonton had four straight games of 26+ points. Meanwhile, the Stampeders have allowed 30+ points in every game but two this year. Both of those were against the aforementioned banged-up Tabbies, who aren’t exactly the pinnacle of offensive excellence in Canadian football right now.

So, while fireworks aren’t traditionally part of Labour Day Weekend celebrations, I do expect we’ll get our fair share of them in the last game of the weekend in the CFL.

Pick: Over 58.5 Points