Adam Chernoff’s CFL picks: bank on Winnipeg Blue Bombers’ old, stale offence returning

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Winnipeg Blue Bombers versus Saskatchewan Roughriders under 57.5

Winnipeg is coming off an overperformance against Montreal in Week 13. It was their best game of the season, and media channels are calling it a “statement” win. Zach Collaros topped 300 yards for the second time in seven starts this season; Brady Olivera had his second-best output with a season-high four explosive runs. Everything clicked for Winnipeg, and they faced a Montreal team in its worst game of the season.

However, this strong performance should be contextualized. People close to the team have privately shared, and some publicly posted, concerns about the offence. These issues haven’t gone away. The underlying numbers support this; Winnipeg still ranks near the bottom in yards per play and big plays, in samples with and without Collaros.

They’ve been out-gained by Edmonton and Ottawa since Collaros returned, and by four consecutive teams during the stretch with backup quarterbacks. This is an old, stale offence. One strong outing against Montreal, a team that overcommitted to man coverage and missed with blitzes, doesn’t change that assessment.

Saskatchewan, by contrast, has underperformed offensively due to mounting injuries. Their second-half comeback last week was sloppy. Two weeks ago, they looked out of sync against B.C. Three weeks ago, they had their worst game of the season against Hamilton, losing outright as a touchdown favourite. With so many key players missing, their offence can’t operate at the level we saw in the first 10 weeks of the season.

Saskatchewan’s defence has also dealt with injuries, yet it’s managed to limit some of the league’s best offences, holding Toronto to 24 points and BC to 30 — their lowest offensive output since Nathan Rourke returned. That reflects good coaching. Facing a step down in competition this week from the Lions and Argos should provide significant relief for the Riders’ defence.

I expect this game to play slower and less explosive than the line suggests, with both defences being the superior units on the field.

Pick: under 57.5 points

Season record: 15-7 (+7.65x)

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