Andrew McInnis’ CFL picks: back Stampeders to give Saskatchewan trouble

Photo: Blair Takahashi/COACHTAK/3DownNation. All rights reserved.

As the season winds down, I typically remain selective. Finding motivation, situational spots, and teams to bet on can be more difficult down the stretch, but I’ve found one this week that caught my eye right away.

Following last week’s results, we are now 12-4-1 on the season with our weekly column. We’ve bet on favourites, underdogs, overs, unders, and props, isolating whatever sticks out on a weekly basis. This week, we return to the underdog market with a team I don’t think is getting enough respect.

Calgary Stampeders at Saskatchewan Roughriders

When I first looked at the slate this week, I couldn’t keep my eye off this game and the number we’re getting with the Stamps. All throughout this season, I’ve had success both backing and fading Calgary in different roles, and this is another number that seems a bit off.

This is a typical example of “bet numbers, not teams.” We all know the Roughriders are the defending Grey Cup champions, and with them getting healthier, it isn’t a surprise to see them laying points at home. While I could certainly see Saskatchewan winning this game, I’m not convinced they’ll win by six points or more.

The Riders have lost four of their last six games, including defeats against Hamilton, Winnipeg, and B.C. When Saskatchewan cannot run the football consistently, the offence becomes much easier to defend, and we’ve seen that show up repeatedly during this stretch. The Riders have the talent to win, but they haven’t been consistently sharp enough to trust them to lay points.

Calgary, meanwhile, has won two straight and is 3-3 over their last six games. While the Stamps have certainly benefited from playing Ottawa twice, their offence has looked much better lately. They scored 40 points in Week 16 and followed that up with 45 in Week 17, with Vernon Adams Jr. throwing for 422 yards and three touchdowns in the latest win.

Adams has now thrown for 3,683 yards, 30 touchdowns and only five interceptions this season. He’s playing with more confidence, Calgary is creating explosive plays, and the ball is being spread around the offence. Jalen Philpot, Tevin Jones and Clark Barnes all topped 100 receiving yards last week.

I know some people won’t take what Calgary has been doing lately too seriously because of the Ottawa games, but I will. The Stamps have also played some of the league’s better teams competitively in losses, and Dave Dickenson has made it clear that this team wants to create momentum heading into the playoffs.

Saskatchewan already beat Calgary this season, but it took double overtime and ended 40-37. The Riders have only covered this number once in their last six games, and while I expect them to have a good chance to win again, I don’t see enough evidence that they’ll separate.

The Riders may win this game, but Calgary has enough offence to stay within one score.

Back the live dog to hang around in this one.

Pick: Stampeders +5