3DownNation CFL best bets: Week 17

Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Week 17 in the Canadian Football League is here, and while we have plenty of data to work with at this point, it seems many have forgotten some lessons learned throughout the year. 

That being said, I have a pair of plays that I like this week, so let’s get to it. 

Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers — Friday, September 25 at 8:00 p.m. EDT

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are back from their bye week to host the Toronto Argonauts and kick off the CFL slate. 

The line has moved quite a bit on this game, due to the news that Zach Collaros is heading to the six-game injured list. That is to be expected; a starting QB is generally going to have a decent impact on the line. But I don’t think this should have changed that much.

Dru Brown is Winnipeg’s backup, and he has already beaten this Toronto side this year, putting up 339 yards passing in a Week 6 win over the Boatmen. Collaros is a big name in the CFL, but he’s not the driving force behind Winnipeg’s success anymore. 

The Bombers have generated the third-fewest passing yards per game this year, and the 339 yards put up by Brown is better than all but one of Collaros’ totals. They aren’t going to need Brown to steal this game; they just need him to not lose it for them. 

A big reason to feel comfortable with Winnipeg is the play of their defence two weeks ago in the Banjo Bowl. The return of Redha Kramdi sparked the Bombers, and they shut down the Saskatchewan attack. Normally, I wouldn’t buy into an outlier that much, but because Winnipeg had a sizeable veteran player check back into their lineup, I’m more inclined to believe that this defence can be a little bit better.

While I’m buying what Winnipeg’s defence is selling, I’m not a believer in the Toronto defence. I feel their performance last week had more to do with Edmonton having an off day than the Argos defence making a stand. This is still a unit that has the third-worst net defence and second-worst passing defence in the CFL. 

As I said before, Dru Brown has already beaten this Argos team. I don’t see why he can’t do it again this weekend.

Pick: Winnipeg +1.5

Saskatchewan Roughriders at B.C. Lions — Friday, September 25 at 10:30 p.m. EDT

The Saskatchewan Roughriders will try to get back on track as they head to the West Coast for the back end of the Friday Night Football double-header.

The defending Grey Cup champs did not look like a championship-level team two weeks ago in their loss to Winnipeg, but some reinforcements are on the way, with Kian Schaffer-Baker and A.J. Ouellette checking back in for Saskatchewan.

Schaffer-Baker is the one that I think will make the most impact, as Trevor Harris clearly missed his six-foot-four pass-catcher from Guelph. In the games since Schaffer-Baker’s injury, Saskatchewan has gone 3-3, averaging 23.8 points per game. With Schaffer-Baker in the lineup, the Riders went 5-2 and averaged 33.1 points per game. 

Harris will love having his go-to target on second downs back. When Schaffer-Baker went out with his injury, the Riders were the best team in the CFL on second down, converting at a rate of 58.9 percent. In his absence, the Riders have fallen behind Montreal in that category and are now at 51 percent. Those struggles were on display in the Banjo Bowl when Saskatchewan went four-for-18 on second down. 

With Schaffer-Baker back in the lineup, the Riders’ offence should be able to stay on the field more. It should also open up more opportunities for KeeSean Johnson, who had just 69 yards receiving in the two games against Winnipeg. And it should put the defence in a better position against a very good Lions offence. 

I know that B.C. is coming off a very good performance against Montreal, but the Riders are getting a major part of their offence back, and that should be enough for them to stay in this game this week. 

Pick: Saskatchewan +4.5

Eligible sports bettors in Ontario and Alberta can find relevant information for wagering on the games by clicking on their respective jurisdictions. Please bet responsibly.