Andrew McInnis’ CFL picks: why you should back the worst team in the league

Photo: Guang Quan/3DownNation. All rights reserved.

It’s a weird week in the CFL. The past two weeks had excitement, rivalry games, revenge games and key matchups. This week feels a little more mediocre, but I’ve found one bet that’s certainly worth making.

We continued our hot run last week, cashing the B.C. Lions on the moneyline at -125 and taking our record to 10-3-1 since joining the 3DownNation family. If you’ve been enjoying the plays so far, I hope you’re ready for an ugly one this week, because we’re backing the worst team in the league.

Ottawa Redblacks at Calgary Stampeders

The expression “bet the numbers, not the teams” gets thrown around in the betting community, and it is going to have to save me here, because, yes, I’m betting on the Ottawa Redblacks this week. There is obviously no reason to pretend Ottawa has suddenly become a good football team, but I do believe there could be value in betting them down the stretch if we continue to get numbers like this.

Ottawa covered as a 9.5-point underdog against Toronto last week, losing 26-23 on a walk-off field goal. The Redblacks tied the game at 23 in the fourth quarter and had the ball in Toronto territory late, before the Argos eventually won it with a field goal.

I’ve had a ton of success being a contrarian this season with these weekly articles, but I’ve done my best to stay away from the Redblacks. This is a spot I can’t stay away from. Their record tells us what has already happened, but I’m more interested in what they can do over the final six games.

The biggest factor pushing me toward this play is the quarterback change. Jake Maier was pulled in the second quarter after completing seven-of-10 passes for just 42 yards, and McLeod Bethel-Thompson immediately provided a spark, completing 16-of-23 passes for 192 yards and a touchdown. Ottawa scored on each of his first five possessions.

I’m not going to act like going from Maier to MBT is game-changing, but he’s a veteran quarterback with 114 regular-season CFL games, more than 19,000 passing yards, and two Grey Cup wins under his belt. Something had to give, and I expect Bethel-Thompson to give Ottawa a more consistent offence over these final weeks.

Now we get to Calgary, and this is where I think the matchup becomes interesting. The Stampeders are obviously the better football team, and they’re playing at home, but Calgary is coming off back-to-back losses to provincial rival Edmonton, including an ugly 53-16 loss in the rematch. The Stamps were outscored 91-44 across those two games.

More importantly, Calgary’s defence has been poor all season, allowing 33.9 points and more than 412 yards per game.

Ottawa showed last week that they can move the football when the quarterback gives the offence some life. If Bethel-Thompson can provide anything close to what we saw against Toronto, I think the Redblacks have a realistic path to getting into the 20s.

That’s what makes +8 so appealing to me. Calgary is going to have to create some separation against an Ottawa team that has already shown it can hang around, and I’m not convinced the Stampeders are in a great spot to do that.

I’m not betting on Ottawa to win, and I’m certainly not pretending the Redblacks are suddenly a good football team. I’m betting on a winless team that just took Toronto down to the final kick, has a veteran quarterback taking over the offence, and is catching eight points against a Calgary defence that has been giving up points all season.

The Redblacks may still finish the season without a win, but I don’t expect them to go quietly. I’m taking Ottawa +8, and I would still play it at +8, but if you can find +8.5, that’s the number I want.

Pick: Redblacks +8

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