3DownNation CFL best bets: Week 16

Photo: Graeme Kelly/Edmonton Elks

Week 16 in the Canadian Football League is here with a lighter, three-game schedule for everyone.

Last week I went 1-1, while the Redblacks’ bonus play at the end almost came through. I learned my lesson in trying to shoot my shot with Ottawa, so we’re avoiding their game this week and focusing on the other two.

Montreal Alouettes at Hamilton Tiger-Cats — Friday, September 18 at 7:30 p.m. EDT

The East-leading Alouettes head into Hamilton to take on a Tiger-Cats team that is holding on to very slim playoff hopes.

Hamilton has hit a slide at the wrong time, having lost three in a row, and now they have to deal with Montreal after the Als lost to B.C. last week. The Tabbies are making several changes to their starting lineup, including at QB, where Harrison Frost gets the nod after taking over for Tre Ford in their loss to Toronto.

Ford has had his usual ups and downs as the Ticats’ starter, so perhaps a bit more consistency under centre could help Hamilton. But, even in the best-case scenario, it is not going to be enough to close the gap on Montreal for this game.

This play isn’t based on stats or anything like that; I just feel Montreal is better. I expect a motivated group coming off of losses in two of their last three games.

Pick: Montreal -5.5

Edmonton Elks at Toronto Argonauts — Saturday, September 19 at 3:00 p.m. EDT

The West-leading Elks head out to Toronto to take on Chad Kelly and the Argos. Toronto escaped last weekend with a win over Ottawa, while Edmonton made another statement in their win over Calgary.

The Elks are the hottest team in the CFL, having won four straight to give themselves a four-point lead over Saskatchewan for first in the West. Three of Edmonton’s four wins during this winning streak have been by at least 10 points, with two of them being by 30+ point margins.

Edmonton really is playing their best football at the biggest time of the year as they look to host a playoff game for the first time since the year they won the Grey Cup in 2015. Since then, Edmonton has played in the East Final as the crossover team more often than they’ve appeared in the West Final.

Mark Kilam and company aren’t leaving anything to chance right now; they are dominating teams all over the field. Edmonton is third in the league in points per game on offence, while their defence is allowing the fewest points per game.

They’ve also allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game in the CFL, while forcing the most turnovers in the league. That last part should concern Chad Kelly, who has thrown almost as many interceptions in 13 games this year (20) as he had in his previous 45 games (23).

The TD numbers have been impressive too, but when you face top teams, those turnovers are killers. You can get away with two interceptions against Ottawa, but that won’t fly here against Edmonton.

The end of the regular season will teach us a lot about the Argos. Of Toronto’s seven wins this year, only two of them have come against teams currently in a playoff spot. One of those was against B.C., who was without Nathan Rourke. Aside from one more game against Ottawa, Toronto only faces playoff teams the rest of the way.

This will be a good test for Toronto. I just don’t think it will be one that they pass.

Pick: Edmonton -1.5

Eligible sports bettors in Ontario and Alberta can find relevant information for wagering on the games by clicking on their respective jurisdiction. Please bet responsibly.