3DownNation CFL picks: can Nathan Rourke prevail in duel with the Bombers’ dynasty?

November 13, 2022

Everything changes in the playoffs, but it still takes a great quarterback to win.

The CFL Division Finals prove exactly that with the two best passers on each side of the country set to duel for a berth in the Grey Cup. Out East, league passing leader McLeod Bethel-Thompson gets a chance to shake off the stink of postseason failure against steady-handed veteran Trevor Harris. In the West, an all-time shootout could be in store between the likely two-time M.O.P winner Zach Collaros and young phenom Nathan Rourke.

The race for supremacy on the 3DownNation leaderboard only features one solid arm, though Justin Dunk doesn’t have control of this race. That would be Ryan Ballantine, but Santino Filoso has tied things up in the straight-up category.

East Division Final: Montreal Alouettes at Toronto Argonauts – 1:00 p.m. EDT

Cornerback Mike Jones promised a complete Grey Cup run after rolling over the sub-.500 Hamilton Tiger-Cats a week ago but a much tougher test awaits him and the Alouettes in Toronto. With an unusually large crowd anticipated at BMO Field, the top-seeded Argos are getting healthy at the right time. They will have future Hall of Fame running back Andrew Harris back on offence, though he intends to play a complementary role after making a near-miraculous recovery from a torn pec. The bigger return may be that of all-star linebacker Wynton McManis, who adds a dangerous element to a ball-hawking defence — not that that will scare Montreal quarterback Trevor Harris.

DUNK: The Argos are rested. Andrew Harris is back along with Wynton McManis. Montreal did enough to hang on and edge out the Ticats but did not play a complete 60 minutes. That will be required against a Toronto team focused on erasing blowing a second half lead in last year’s East Final.

Straight-up: ARGOS. Against the spread: ARGOS.

HODGE: I’m interested to see what Andrew Harris will be able to do in his return from injury and Ryan Hunter has helped beef up the offensive line in front of him. With that said, Trevor Harris is better at playing mistake-free football than McLeod Bethel-Thompson and I love the physicality of Montreal’s defence. I’ll take the underdogs by a hair.

Straight-up: ALS. Against the spread: ALS.

ABBOTT: They may be the top seed in the East Division but the Argos just don’t scare me offensively, it is just that simple. Neither team has been particularly consistent, but at least I know Eugene Lewis will come up with a big play when it counts. That gives Montreal the edge in my books.

Straight-up: ALS. Against the spread: ALS.

BALLANTINE: The Argos have proven more than a few times that they deserved top of the table in the East Division. I expect MBT to control the game and let his teammates carry him to victory. The Alouettes can be successful if Trevor Harris stays upright and without pressure, but I don’t see Argos DC Corey Mace giving him that time.

Straight-up: ARGOS. Against the spread: ARGOS.

FILOSO: Since 1972, the team hosting the East Final has won 70 percent of the time (32-14). That bodes well for an Argos squad that is as healthy as they’ve been all season and that always seems to play well at BMO. A packed house only increases their home-field advantage. Although I believe in the Double Blue, I also think it’ll be a close game all the way through.

Straight-up: ARGOS. Against the spread: ALS.

GASSON: The Fraser Curse™ is going to be put to the test here. I’ve bet against the Argos most of the year and I still don’t really trust them, but they certainly have a very good shot at winning this game. That said, I can’t go against the curse. My Green Cast co-host John Fraser suggested the Als would miss the playoffs when Danny Maciocia took over. Their success was cemented then.

Straight-up: ALS. Against the spread: ALS.

HUDSON: The Argos have the bye, a couple of games of solid tape against Montreal before it, and a former Stampeders staff with experience neutralizing Harris at QB. I don’t think Eugene Lewis is enough to overcome that. However, Montreal’s running game could tip things if the old Stanback shows up.

Straight-up: ARGOS. Against the spread: ARGOS.

LUDWIG: First Montreal had a chance at a field goal for the win; they missed, and the Argos won. Then Toronto had a chance at a field goal for the win; they missed, and they still won. They both barely beat Edmonton late-season and I already tried flipping a coin, which failed. I can’t even pick a tie. After much deliberation, I’ll settle on the humour of a 9-9 team in the Grey Cup, as only the East can provide.

Straight-up: ALS. Against the spread: ALS.

MCGUIRE: I like Trevor Harris’ pregame comments about not playing scared and really want to see an original Montreal-Winnipeg Grey Cup matchup in Regina. However, the Argos have built up their share of scar tissue and the return of Andrew Harris combined with an actual home-field advantage has me thinking double blue in a close one.

Straight-up: ARGOS. Against the spread: ALS.

SMITH: If the Argos don’t play the Ticats in the playoffs, they make the Grey Cup. It was that way in 2012 and 2017 and there is no reason to believe that won’t be the case in 2022. Add in the Ja’Gared Davis factor — he has played in the Grey Cup every year of his CFL career — and you have the recipe for the Argos to get back to the title game for the first time in five years. I don’t trust either quarterback and Andrew Harris’ “medical miracle” should raise some eyebrows but none of that is enough for me to pick the Alouettes.

Straight-up: ARGOS. Against the spread: ARGOS.

TOTALS STRAIGHT-UP: Argos 6, Als 4

TOTALS AGAINST THE SPREAD: Argos 4, Als 6

West Division Final: B.C. Lions at Winnipeg Blue Bombers – 4:30 p.m. EDT

The two-time defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg Blue Bombers are a known commodity at this stage and should have all their horses ready to go in front of a home crowd — with the possible exception of Rasheed Bailey. The Lions will have left tackle Joel Figueroa back to protect injured quarterback Nathan Rourke but that won’t be enough to shrug off the underdog label, though the Lions seem content with their status. The toughness of the young Canadian superstar will be paramount in inclement weather conditions and his playmaking ability could change the complexion of the game, though the Bombers have a homegrown star of their own in Nic Demski who got a little added motivation this week.

DUNK: Nathan Rourke can get it done but too many people are forgetting about the Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffcoat’s ability to takeover games in the postseason. Winnipeg is healthy, playing in front of sold out crowd and are comfortable in the cold, plus Zach Collaros is the most clutch QB in the league. That’s a lot for Rourke to overcome, especially if his offensive tackles let him take a beating again.

Straight-up: BOMBERS. Against the spread: LIONS.

HODGE: Nathan Rourke and James Butler are banged up for the Lions, while Winnipeg is the healthiest it’s been in months. When you add in the cold weather and what will be a raucous crowd at IG Field, all the advantages point to the Blue Bombers and I expect them to take full advantage. Rourke will lead the Lions to the Grey Cup someday but this simply isn’t their year.

Straight-up: BOMBERS. Against the spread: BOMBERS.

ABBOTT: Winnipeg has been the best team in the CFL by a mile over the last few years but they’ve done it by winning an awful lot of close games. That’s a testament to their team in a lot of ways, though it also shows a tendency to come out flat at odd moments. Rourke may not be at full strength but he will make you pay for mistakes in a way other CFL quarterbacks won’t. The Bombers are the better unit nine times out of ten, this time the bounce finally goes the other way.