Andrew McInnis’ CFL picks: expect Ottawa and B.C. to deliver a shootout

Photo courtesy: David Dermer/B.C. Lions

As excited as I am for the playoffs to get going, these final few weeks of the CFL season can be a profitable time for bettors. Whether we’re identifying which teams have something to play for or finding value in matchups where the betting line doesn’t reflect the gap between the teams, there’s still money to be made with the regular season winding down.

After last week’s play on Calgary against Saskatchewan, with the Stampeders winning outright as underdogs, we’re now sitting at 13-4-1 with our column picks. This week, we’re looking at a total in Ottawa-B.C. and a side in Saskatchewan-Montreal. Let’s get into it.

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Ottawa Redblacks at B.C. Lions

The first thing that stands out in this matchup is the number. A total of 63.5 is certainly high, but when you look at Ottawa’s defensive struggles and B.C.’s ability to put points on the board, there’s a good reason to expect the Lions to contribute heavily to the scoring.

Ottawa have shown they can produce offensively, putting up 38 points against Calgary two weeks ago in a 40-38 loss. McLeod Bethel-Thompson threw for 379 yards and five touchdowns in that game, showing the Redblacks can move the ball against an opponent even though things haven’t gone their way this season. They managed only 16 points against Hamilton last week, so another big offensive performance isn’t guaranteed, but the upside is there.

The bigger concern for Ottawa is on the other side of the ball. The Redblacks’ defence has been awful all year, which has played a big part in their struggles this season. They gave up 34 points to Hamilton last week, with quarterback Harrison Frost completing 80 percent of his passes for 342 yards. Ottawa have struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks, and now they face a B.C. team that should have opportunities to exploit those same weaknesses.

If you’re someone who likes looking at head-to-head history, the first meeting between these teams is another reason to look at the Over. Ottawa jumped out to a 14-3 lead before the Lions took control and won 45-24, with the teams combining for 69 points. We don’t need an identical game this time around, but that result showed how B.C. can take advantage of Ottawa defensively while the Redblacks can contribute enough offensively to push the total higher.

The biggest question is whether Ottawa can do enough offensively to help get us over the number. The Redblacks have been competitive early in games over the last three weeks but have repeatedly found ways to lose. That makes them difficult to trust on the side, but I’m more interested in what they can contribute offensively in this matchup.

With the Lions sitting as 13.5-point favourites, I’m expecting them to do their part against a defence that has consistently struggled to get stops. I don’t need Ottawa to light the world on fire, but if they contribute offensively as they have over the last few weeks, the Lions should do more than enough to get us over this number.

Pick: Over 63.5

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Montreal Alouettes

I’ve been comfortable fading Saskatchewan this season when the Roughriders were laying points, but this is a different spot. Now we’re getting the defending Grey Cup champions as underdogs, and I think there’s value in backing them to hang around against the East’s top team.

Montreal clinched first place in the East with a dominant 37-10 win over Winnipeg last week and enter this matchup at 12-3. The Alouettes have been one of the league’s most consistent teams, but I’m not convinced the gap between these clubs is large enough to justify laying 5.5 points.

Saskatchewan is coming off a disappointing 37-31 loss to Calgary as favourites, but the offence still managed to put up 31 points. Injuries have been an issue, and the Roughriders haven’t found their stride despite having a strong roster. With the playoffs approaching, they need to put together a more complete performance, and this is an opportunity to get back on track.

The season averages also suggest Saskatchewan can keep this competitive. The Roughriders are averaging 28.7 points per game compared with Montreal’s 35.7, while allowing 27.2 points per game to the Alouettes’ 28.0. Montreal has been the more productive offence, but Saskatchewan’s defence has been comparable. At +5.5, I think the Riders have enough to stay within one score, even if they don’t come away with the outright win.

Pick: Roughriders +5.5