Andrew McInnis’ CFL picks: fade Alouettes, back B.C. Lions in revenge spot

Photo courtesy: Vitor Munhoz/B.C. Lions

It’s been a great run for us with these weekly picks, sitting at 9-3-1 since joining the 3DownNation family, and fresh off a 2-0 Labour Day weekend slate, hitting Montreal -3.5 and Edmonton/Calgary over 58.5.

This week, with several rapid revenge angles available, I’ve selected one that I really like. There are some interesting numbers behind this one, and after watching what happened in the first meeting, I think we have a great opportunity to get right back on the winning side.

So, enough talking about our past record, let’s get focused on what we have in store for Week 15.

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Montreal Alouettes at B.C. Lions

Alright, this might be hard to believe at first, but we are fading the team at the top of the table. Going against the Alouettes is never easy, but if you give me a chance, I’ll do my best to explain why the Lions are the best revenge spot of the weekend.

The Alouettes are 10-2 on the season for a reason, so it’s hard to find reasons to go against them, but this is about as good of a spot as we’re going to get. We backed Montreal -3.5 in last week’s matchup, and the Alouettes delivered with a 37-30 win. I’m not going to sit here and pretend Montreal didn’t deserve to win because they did. They made the big plays when they needed them and took advantage of B.C.’s mistakes. At the same time, I came away from that game thinking the Lions had plenty of reasons to believe they could have won it.

Having a revenge opportunity doesn’t always promise a victory, but this is my favourite revenge spot of the week.

Let’s dive into the numbers. B.C. out-gained Montreal 457-338, ran 18 more plays and held the ball for more than seven minutes. Nathan Rourke threw for 375 yards and two touchdowns, while four different Lions receivers finished with at least five catches and 63 yards. The problem was that B.C. couldn’t consistently finish those drives, settling for five field goals, while Rourke’s interception was returned 57 yards for a touchdown.

The interception obviously hurt, but when I look at the overall numbers, I think this game was much closer than the final score indicated. Montreal won the game, but I didn’t watch that matchup and come away thinking the Lions had no answer for the Alouettes.

I often find people overestimate home-field advantage in sports betting. It isn’t as valuable as it used to be. When it comes to this matchup, though, I think it’s worth mentioning. Montreal has been unbeatable at home this season, going 7-0 at Molson Stadium, but the Alouettes have looked much more ordinary away from home. They’re 3-2 on the road, and their average scoring margin drops from +12.0 at home to just +2.2 away. Their three Western road games have been even more interesting, with losses in Edmonton and Winnipeg surrounding a win in Calgary.

That doesn’t mean Montreal suddenly becomes a bad football team outside of Montreal. It does tell us that the environment matters, and this is about as big of a change as we can get from last week. The Alouettes went from playing at home to travelling across the country to face a B.C. team that now gets the benefit of playing in front of its own fans.

There’s also some pretty remarkable history between these two teams in Vancouver. Montreal has won at BC Place only once in the last 25 years, a 23-13 victory in 2015. Before that, you have to go all the way back to 2000 to find another Montreal win at BC Place.

I’m not going to tell you that a trend stretching back decades is enough to handicap a football game. It isn’t. But when you combine that history with Montreal’s much stronger home numbers, their 1-2 record in Western road games this season, and the fact that B.C. put up 457 yards against this defence, I think the location becomes a legitimate part of the handicap.

Ever hear someone say, “The trend is your friend.” When it comes to the history between these two teams in B.C., it’s very hard to ignore. The Lions have consistently played well against Montreal at home, and now they get another opportunity to bounce back against a team they know they can move the football against.

The other major factor working in B.C.’s favour is the absence of Travis Theis. Montreal placed Theis on the six-game injured list following last week’s game, taking 831 rushing yards and seven touchdowns out of the Alouettes’ offence. Jason Maas has talked about the spark Theis provides, and losing that kind of production is another factor that I think works in B.C.’s favour, especially against a Lions defence that should be looking to make life difficult for Davis Alexander.

I also continue to like what B.C. can do offensively in this matchup. Montreal had no easy answer for the Lions’ receiving depth last week. Justin McInnis had 100 yards, Jermaine Jackson had 98, Jevon Cottoy had 72 and Keon Hatcher added 63. That’s 333 receiving yards from four different players, and it forced Montreal to defend the entire field.

Rourke doesn’t need to throw for another 375 yards for B.C. to win this game. He needs to protect the football, finish a few more drives and let the talent around him do what it did last week. We already saw B.C. move the ball against this defence. Now I’m betting on the Lions to finish the job.

That’s ultimately where I land with this one. We saw Montreal beat B.C. last week, but I don’t think the Lions were without an answer for the Alouettes. B.C. played well enough offensively to win the first meeting, the location is now flipped, Montreal is without one of its top offensive weapons and the Lions have a chance to get revenge in front of their home crowd.

The market has also moved this game much closer to a pick’em than the three-and-a-half points we laid with Montreal last week. I’m not interested in chasing last week’s result. I’m interested in betting on what I think happens the second time around.

Give me the B.C. Lions to get their revenge at home.

Pick: Lions moneyline -125

Eligible sports bettors in Ontario and Alberta can find relevant information for wagering on the games by clicking on their respective jurisdiction. Please bet responsibly.