3DownNation CFL best bets: Week 15

Photo: Tanner Piper/3DownNation. All rights reserved.

We are into the post-Labour Day portion of the Canadian Football League schedule, as we head into Week 15.

I had a couple of particularly bad beats last week, missing on the Winnipeg spread and the Toronto/Hamilton total by a point each. But I don’t give back the ones that just barely go my way, so, time to get back on track after going 1-2.

The all-Saturday schedule has delayed some of the props coming out, so only two plays are on the card for me this week.

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers — Saturday, September 12 at 4:00 p.m. EDT

The Roughriders and Bombers meet in the Banjo Bowl after a thrilling overtime game last weekend in Regina.

This is not traditionally a game that has gone well for Saskatchewan, with last year’s win snapping a five-game Banjo Bowl losing streak. In fact, the Riders are looking for back-to-back Banjo Bowl wins for the first time since 2010-11, when Darian Durant beat Buck Pierce and Joey Elliott.

While I do think the Riders will win this game, the past history is enough to scare me away from picking a side in this game, so we are going to go the prop route.

Trevor Harris’ line is set at 307.5 passing yards, which is a mark that he has cleared in four of his last five outings, including each of the last three weeks. In all, Harris has over 308 passing yards in eight of the Riders’ 12 games this year, and he’s done a lot of that with a banged-up receiving group.

Kian Schaffer-Baker was a limited participant in practice to start the week, so we’ll see if he can help out this week. Even if he’s absent for the sixth game in a row, I still have faith in this Riders passing attack. Dhel Duncan-Busby had a breakout performance on Labour Day weekend with 10 receptions for 148 yards in the win, giving Harris another weapon to work with.

If Winnipeg focuses more on the Bemidji State product, that should take pressure off KeeSean Johnson, who had his second-lowest receiving total of the year last week. Johnson has shown he is a number one in this league, and I don’t believe Winnipeg can keep him bottled up for a second week in a row.

It won’t be easy against Winnipeg, as the Bombers have the second-best pass defence in the league when looking at yards per game, but the area in their game that is the weakest is also one that Saskatchewan has been excellent in. Winnipeg has given up the third-most completions of 30+ yards in the CFL this year, while Saskatchewan has completed the second-most 30+ yard passes.

That showed up last week, with three different Riders registering a reception of 32 yards or more. Winnipeg may keep Saskatchewan bottled up for stretches of this game, but I trust the Riders’ line to give Harris time to complete a couple of deep shots that will send us into the winners circle this week.

Pick: Trevor Harris Over 307.5 yards

Calgary Stampeders at Edmonton Elks — Saturday, September 12 at 7:00 p.m. EDT

One week after a thrilling, come-from-behind win over their provincial rivals, Edmonton returns home for the rematch with Calgary.

Long-time readers of this column know I have wanted to believe in Calgary all season long. I just can’t do it anymore. Considering the stage and the stakes, that was about as bad a loss as you can have in the middle of the year. Now, you have to go on the road to face that same team again with your playoff hopes hanging in the balance.

The problem for Calgary all season long has been their defence. The Stamps have given up the second-most points in the league this year, and they have the second-worst net defence as well. They’ve had success when their offence can outscore those problems, but that is a big ask, even for the top-scoring team in the league.

Calgary is still very much alive in the playoff picture, but the general vibe around the team and city makes this feel like a must-win game for them. I don’t think desperation alone is enough to get the job done.

The issue I keep coming back to in this matchup is that I believe Cody Fajardo and the Elks can hang with Calgary if the game is played to the Stamps’ strength of a wild shootout. However, I don’t think Calgary’s defence can hold up if the game is played at more of Edmonton’s pace.

Pick: Edmonton -3

Bonus underdog pick: Ottawa Redblacks at Toronto Argonauts — Saturday, September 12 at 1:00 p.m. EDT

I can’t, in good conscience, give this as an actual best bet, but I just have a gut feel about this game.

There is obviously no stat that I can pull to justify picking Ottawa in this spot. But if the Redblacks are going to win a game this year, it is going to have to be against a team that essentially beats itself. Who better fits that criteria than Chad Kelly and the Toronto Argonauts? Kelly threw four interceptions when these two teams played early in the season, to go along with four TDs in their 44-24 win.

Toronto’s next three opponents are the Elks, Bombers, and Lions. One is a division leader, and the other two could very easily be playoff opponents for Toronto thanks to the crossover. I could see a world where Kelly and the Boatmen are looking past the Redblacks, and that sloppy play is enough to let Ottawa be a banana peel on Toronto’s road to the post-season.

Again, this is in no way a “best bet.” The most likely outcome is Toronto bludgeons Ottawa in a one-sided affair to kick off the CFL quadruple-header. But I think it might be worth a look as an underdog play to start a busy Saturday.

Pick: Ottawa +455