Adam Chernoff’s CFL picks: three favourites worth betting in Week 10

Photo courtesy: Martyne Vallerand/B.C. Lions

Last week, I won with Saskatchewan as my favourite bet of the season so far. Week 10 doesn’t have the same single game upside on the schedule, but there are still a couple of great bets to make.

Calgary Stampeders -1

I don’t love fading the Toronto Argonauts because I love the upside their offence has each week. Returning home after nine weeks on the road is a nice positive for them too. However, I can’t help but think their schedule is showing fake defensive improvement. In the three weeks leading up to their bye, the Argos faced three backup quarterbacks and allowed 22 points per game, 16.5 fewer points per game than they allowed in their first four games of the season against starting quarterbacks.

The last time the Argonauts faced a starting offence with its No. 1 quarterback was on July 2 against this Calgary team. The Stampeders closed as 1.5-point home favourites, out-gained the Argos by 3.1 yards per play, and won 58-36.

In contrast to Toronto, the two games against Montreal over the last three weeks have disguised just how good this Stampeders team is. After tight games in Weeks 7 and 8, Calgary came out and beat the Bombers 52-30 in Winnipeg, a match-up the Argos lost by nine in Week 6, and then beat the Tiger-Cats by 24, a matchup the Argos lost by one in Week 7.

Give me the Stamps in this game.

Montreal Alouettes -3.5

In my write-up last week, I talked about not buying into the Elks as the top team in football despite the media shouting their praises across the country. This week presents another opportunity to back a superior team in a revenge spot by taking Montreal.

The Alouettes closed as 2.5-point favourites in Edmonton back in Week 3 and lost 32-29 in overtime. At the time, the Elks’ power rating was very low, and much has changed since then with their noted improvement. However, this spread of -3.5 still works out to Montreal -2 on a neutral field without home-field advantage priced in. I just never get that low.

Edmonton still doesn’t have a dominant signature win on its schedule. They beat Ottawa (0-7) twice, then squeaked by Saskatchewan by two in a week full of distractions, BC by two with a backup quarterback, Winnipeg by five in another week full of distractions, and Montreal by three in overtime.

I think all of the hype is overblown, and the Alouettes are the superior team. I’ll happily lay fewer than five points in this game.

BC Lions -6.5

This is a reset week for the BC Lions. Canadian quarterback Nathan Rourke seems likely to return after missing multiple games with an injury. With the receiving group getting healthier, this is the healthiest we’ve seen the Lions’ passing game since Week 2 in Regina.

The secondary remains a massive issue, and laying 6.5 points with a team that has covered just once all season, last week, would normally be a concern. However, they get a backup quarterback for the second week in a row. Last week, they held Dru Brown and the Bombers offence to 5.7 yards per play.

With Harrison Frost likely to start for the Tiger-Cats, BC will be defending a passer who has a career professional completion percentage of 53 percent. I don’t believe Mike Benevides has fixed this defence, but I do believe this week’s opponent will make for another deceptively good performance from this unit as the Lions get the win and the cover at home.

Season record: 12-4 (+7.85x)

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