Adam Chernoff’s CFL picks: favourite bet of the 2026 season so far

Photo courtesy: Arthur Ward/CFL.

The rematch between the reigning Grey Cup champions and Edmonton Elks in Week 9 at Commonwealth Stadium has my betting interest piqued.

Saskatchewan Roughriders +1

This is my favourite bet of the 2026 season so far.

I’ll start by talking about the price. Last week, Saskatchewan closed as 4.5-point favourites in Regina. That game was bet up from -3.5 at open, meaning the market liked Saskatchewan throughout the week and money pushed the number higher. For the rematch, just nine days later, the line has moved 5.5 points in favour of Edmonton.

I believe this adjustment is incorrect for two reasons. First, home games in Regina are no longer worth what they used to be for the Riders, especially on a Thursday evening. While attendance numbers were high, videos of the stands in the second half showed just how many empty seats were in the building. Second, home games in Edmonton are rarely worth much. I understand the city has been pushing to sell tickets for this game, and attendance is tracking at more than 30,000, but half of those fans are likely to be Saskatchewan supporters, with this being the only Riders game in Edmonton this season. Even being extra generous with home-field advantage, I only get to Saskatchewan -2.5, and even that feels like a stretch.

A case can be made that the Roughriders were significantly outplayed by the Elks. Edmonton out-gained Saskatchewan by 2.2 yards per play and averaged 16 yards per pass attempt. However, I’m not fully buying into that either. Even with that level of dominance, it still took a 57-yard walk-off field goal to secure the victory. The game also came at the perfect time for Edmonton. Saskatchewan spent the week leading up to it dealing with the tragic car accident that claimed the lives of two people, one of whom was a teammate. Their practice schedule was altered, as was their game preparation, despite coming off a bye week.

There was an interesting comment from defensive back Marcus Sayles this week, where he said the majority of the mistakes came down to communication breakdowns and a lack of focus. I truly believe the events surrounding the team had a significant negative impact once the full news came out, rather than serving as a motivational rally.

I also love the fact that defensive leader Rolan Milligan Jr. called out the defence after the game. His message has clearly resonated, as every Saskatchewan media availability this week has focused on refocusing defensively and tightening things up.

This is Corey Mace’s unit, and I believe in him as a head coach. I have confidence he’ll get things corrected for the rematch. I expect a much better defensive performance.

The last thing that stands out to me is how much social media has shifted toward the Elks. I don’t want to take anything away from their improvement, but from Luke Willson to the power rankings, the entire CFL social media space suddenly has Edmonton as the top team after last week’s win. I believe that has contributed to the line flipping and making the Elks favourites.

Everyone wants to recognize this team right now as the league’s breakout story. I agree they’ve improved, but they’ve faced Saskatchewan during a week filled with tragic events, B.C. with a backup quarterback, Ottawa twice, and B.C. again at a neutral site. They’re 6-0 against the spread, but their four non-Ottawa wins have come by a combined 12 points.

The Elks are not the best team in the league, and they should not be favourites in this matchup. I’m happy to take the Riders here to rebound and get their revenge.

Season record: 11-4 (+6.85x)

Eligible sports bettors in Ontario and Alberta can find relevant information for wagering on the games by clicking on their respective jurisdiction. Please bet responsibly.