3DownNation CFL best bets: Grey Cup odds

Photo: Bob Butrym/3DownNation. All rights reserved.

It’s opening week in the Canadian Football League, and we’re back for another season of Best Bets.

Before we dive back into the grind of the weekly breakdowns, we’re going to have a bit of fun looking at each team’s odds of hoisting the Grey Cup when the season wraps up in Calgary on November 15th. Let’s get right into it.

We’re going to break the odds up into four different categories with my best bet at the very end.

Anything can happen: Ottawa Redblacks, Toronto Argonauts, Winnipeg Blue Bombers

It’s a new season, which means everyone has the same starting point. And if there’s one thing we all know about the CFL, it’s that you can never truly count anyone out. With that said, I think a lot would have to happen for these teams to be hoisting the Grey Cup when all is said and done.

Ottawa +1000

It was an offseason of sweeping change in Ottawa as the Ryan Dinwiddie era kicks off in the nation’s capital. Dinwiddie feels like an upgrade over Bob Dyce for a Redblacks team that’s looking for just their second trip to the postseason since losing in the Grey Cup in 2018.

With Dinwiddie comes Jake Maier, who won the starting QB job during training camp. Dru Brown struggled to stay healthy last season, and Maier will likely be an upgrade over a lot of the other pivots that the Redblacks tried to play last season.

However, this team was more than just a QB upgrade away from being a real championship threat. Sure, they’ve overhauled the roster and coaching staff, but team has a lot of catching up to do if they want to get back to Grey Cup-level.

Toronto +1050

The Argonauts have won two Grey Cups in recent memory but I have a hard time seeing a team that went 5-13 last year finishing 2026 with double-blue confetti raining down upon them.

Chad Kelly is back, and when he’s at his best, he’s one of the best players in the league. This should lead to some improvement, but QB was not Toronto’s biggest issue last year. The Boatmen finished second in the CFL in passing and Nick Arbuckle had the league’s best single-game performance when he threw for 443 yards against B.C.

In 2025, Argonauts finished bottom-three in turnovers, bottom-half in net defence, and had the worst opponent passing efficiency in the CFL. No team gave up more passing touchdowns or 30-yard completions.

Much like Ottawa, this could be an improved team this year, but they had such a long way to go, I don’t think they’ve done enough to close the gap — let alone get all the way back to the top.

Winnipeg +600

This is the team that will feel out of place to some, but let me explain: last year felt like the end of an era in Winnipeg. Zach Collaros had a tough time staying healthy, and it never felt like this team was getting back to the same dominant level they reached during their tremendous run to five-straight Grey Cups.

Now, credit to the Blue Bombers: they had a very good offseason and addressed many of the issues that plagued them a season ago, adding a new offensive coordinator in Tommy Condell, and a slew of talented free agents.

However, for this team to go all the way, they’ll need Collaros to get back to the level that saw him win back-to-back Most Outstanding Player awards coming out of the pandemic. When your season hinges on a bounce-back season from a soon-to-be 38-year-old QB with recent injury problems, I just don’t like your chances.

Winnipeg should be a good team this year, but the West Division looks like it is going to be a gauntlet again, and being good won’t be good enough.

Bang for your buck: Saskatchewan Roughriders, Hamilton Tiger-Cats, Edmonton Elks

Edmonton +2000

Edmonton was the lone West Division team to miss the postseason last year. It’s become easy to dunk on the Elks, who have been in the East Final (twice) more often than they’ve been in the West Final (once) since winning the Grey Cup in 2015.

They also haven’t made the playoffs in five years, but I do think things are turning around in Edmonton. The team got off to a horrendous start with Tre Ford under centre, then their fortunes turned around when Cody Fajardo checked in. This year, Fajardo is going to be the starter from day one.

The Elks added a familiar target for Fajardo in free agency in Austin Mack, while also bolstering their defence with Malik Carney. The roster is improved and head coach Mark Kilam now has a full year of experience under his belt. Given the incredible amount of praise and support his hiring had at the time, I believe that he will continue to grow into this role.

Much like the three teams in the previous section, a lot has to go right for Edmonton to make this bet cash, but I believe they were better than their record showed last year, and they’ve improves since then. This feels like a very good value play if you decide to go that way.

Saskatchewan +625

The defending champion Roughriders were picked over in free agency and enter the season with the fourth-best odds of winning the Grey Cup.

The line alone make this play worthy of consideration. Yes, Saskatchewan lost a lot of players, but they had a lot of players to lose. Despite the departures, they’ve still got one of the league’s best rosters and coaching staffs.

The biggest area of loss was along the defensive line, where the Green and White have been dominant under Corey Mace. It’s reasonable to suggest that Mace’s coaching can help get some of the new faces in the pass rush to the level they need to get to.

Trevor Harris is 40 and doesn’t have a proven backup behind him, which could obviously throw a wrench into this play. With that said, I believe it’s at least worth taking a look at picking the defending champs with the fourth-best odds to win it all again.

Hamilton +650

The Tiger-Cats enter the season with the third-best odds to win the Grey Cup after losing at home in the East Final last year.

Their big offseason move was on the defensive side of the ball, as they brought in Wynton McManis from their provincial rivals in Toronto. The two-time All-CFL selection should help bolster a unit that finished second-last in net defence in 2025.

The offence remains relatively intact after finishing second in the league in points and third in net offence. Bo Levi Mitchell led the CFL in passing yards and touchdowns, while his favourite target, Kenny Lawler, is fresh-off signing a record-setting deal. Clearly, the offence should be able to pick up where they left off last year.

If the offence can stay as dangerous as they were a year ago, and the defence can get a few more stops, there is no reason that this Ticats team can’t end the longest Grey Cup drought in the league.

Favourites: Montreal Alouettes, B.C. Lions

B.C. +425

The Lions have the reigning Most Outstanding Player and Most Outstanding Defensive Player, and yet still have a lot to prove after falling in the West Final last season.

B.C. is a favourite for a reason: there’s high-level talent up and down their roster. They have the flashy players that everyone recognizes, and in the trenches, they allowed the fewest sacks while also sacking opposing QBs more than anyone else.

The argument against picking them would be on the defensive side, where they allowed the third-most points in the CFL last season and have an aging secondary. They did still add to the unit in free agency with Casey Sayles and Darnell Sankey being brought to round the team out.

This is a very good football team and they should be in the mix by the time November rolls around, but value just isn’t there to make this the best bet.

Montreal +320

If there was a world in which you could guarantee perfect health and everyone playing to the best of their abilities, I don’t think there would be much doubt that the Alouettes would win the Grey Cup — or at least make the game representing the East Division.

Injuries slowed Davis Alexander and several other key players on this team in 2025 and they still won the East Division. This is a very well-built roster and a coaching staff that can get the most out of it.

There’s a good chance that a bet on Montreal to win the Grey Cup would be a successful one, but there is a team that arguably provides better value.

Best bet: Calgary Stampeders

Calgary +800

The Stampeders many have the sixth-best odds to win the Grey Cup this year, but I love this team’s chances.

Starting at QB is Vernon Adams Jr., who is coming off his first season in Calgary, which saw the Stamps go 11-7 and finish two points back of Saskatchewan for first in the West Division.

Giving Adams a chance to build off of what he did in the Stampede City last year should help get this team a little further this year. Meanwhile, they bring back Dedrick Mills, who led the league in rushing last season, and a receiver room that features Dejon Brissett, Jalen Philpot, Clark Barnes, and Erik Brooks. If Reggie Begelton comes back at the levels we’ve seen him reach before, then this can be a really dangerous offence.

The confidence in this pick comes from the defensive side. Folarin Orimolade is back after making a huge impact in 12 games last year. He missed the back part of the season and the playoffs with a torn Achilles, an injury that was a real fork-in-the-road moment for a Calgary defence that couldn’t get back to their dominant ways with Orimolade on the sidelines.

He should be ready to go for Week 1, alongside the recently re-signed Jaylon Hutchings, who was waived by the Minnesota Vikings. Together, they will help bolster a defence that gave up the second-fewest points in the league last year, even with their late-season struggles that hurt some of the other numbers.

Last year was a year of major changes for Calgary. This year there is some continuity again, and they have a chance to build on an excellent season. Plus, if they can make it to the CFL’s big game, they will be very comfortable playing in the friendly, rapidly declining confines of McMahon Stadium.

It all sets up to be a storybook season for Calgary, and potentially a profitable one for all of us.