NFL moves shake up the CFL draft

The 2017 NFL draft came to a conclusion just before 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, helping set the stage for next Sunday’s CFL draft.

Four of the CFL’s highest-ranked prospects were hoping to hear their names called among the 253 draftees, including Mississippi State offensive tackle Justin Senior (1), UCLA defensive tackle Eli Ankou (2), Manitoba guard Geoff Gray (3), and Laval tight end Antony Auclair (7). UCLA linebacker Cameron Judge, a late addition to the 2017 draft class, was also a potential candidate for selection.

Senior turned out to be the lone draftee on Saturday, going in the mid-sixth round to the Seattle Seahawks. Senior will earn a signing bonus of approximately $50,000 as per his draft position, a sizeable bonus for a project player who underwhelmed at the Senior Bowl.

But how does his selection in the NFL draft affect Senior’s CFL draft stock? Teams will want to know the odds of Senior signing a CFL contract are decent if they are to invest anything higher than a mid-round selection to draft him.

Unfortunately for CFL teams, the recent history of Canadian sixth round NFL draft picks making their way north is bleak.

McGill tackle Laurent Duvernay-Tardif was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs in the sixth round of the 2014 NFL draft and has since established himself as one of the league’s best young guards. Inking a five-year, $41.25 million dollar contract extension in February, it is safe to say the man known to many NFL fans as “Larry the Canadian” will never play a down in the CFL.

Rice defensive tackle Christian Covington went in the sixth round one year later to the Houston Texans where he has quickly developed into an impact player, starting five games in 2016. Covington’s role should increase in 2017 following the departure of future hall of fame nose tackle Vince Wilfork.

While there’s no guarantee that Senior will enjoy the same NFL success as Duvernay-Tardif or Covington, CFL teams should be hesitant to invest a high pick in the Mississippi State product. Historically, approximately 70 percent of sixth round picks remain with their original NFL team for at least one season; that number falls to 35 percent by year three.

Covington was a fifth-round pick of the B.C. Lions in 2015, while Duvernay-Tardif was a third-round pick of the Stampeders in 2014, albeit it in a weak draft class. Look for Senior to go no earlier than the third round in next Sunday’s CFL draft. I wouldn’t consider Senior a bargain until somewhere in the fifth.

Three of the players listed above signed with NFL teams just moments after the draft as priority free agents. UCLA’s Ankou joined Covington in Houston, Manitoba’s Gray signed with Green Bay, and Laval’s Auclair inked a deal with Tampa Bay.

Unless the trend changes, this trio won’t be CFL-bound anytime soon.

Over the past ten years, every CFL draft prospect to sign with an NFL club as a priority undrafted free agent has stuck down south. Austin Pasztor (2012), Moe Petrus (2012), Brett Boyko (2015), Mehdi Abdesmad (2016), and Arjen Colquhoun (2016) all signed NFL deals immediately following their respective drafts and are either still under contract (Boyko, Abdesmad), retired (Petrus) or free agents (Pasztor, Colquhoun).

The track record for non-priority undrafted free agents is more CFL-friendly. Stefan Charles (2012), Andy Mulumba (2013), Elie Bouka (2016), and Tevaun Smith (2016) all remain in the NFL, but Sam Giguere (2008), Tyler Holmes (2012), Linden Gaydosh (2013), and David Foucault (2014) all eventually signed CFL deals after stints down south. Giguere took four seasons to come north, Foucault needed three, while Holmes and Gaydosh both needed just one.

This means that while Ankou, Gray, and Auclair may be unlikely to sign CFL deals anytime soon (if ever), any of the remaining unsigned CFL draft prospects — UCLA’s Judge, Iowa defensive tackle Faith Ekakitie, Maine linebacker Christophe Mulumba, etc. — may still be worth high picks, even if they sign NFL deals before the CFL draft on May 7.

Time will tell how this year’s CFL draft eventually shakes out. Fortunately for fans, the conclusion of the NFL draft has brought some clarity — if only a little.