Andrew McInnis’ CFL picks: attacking 113th Grey Cup with three strong plays

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The day Canadian football fans have been waiting for has finally arrived.

The 113th Grey Cup takes place Sunday at McMahon Stadium in Calgary, with the East Division champion Montreal Alouettes taking on the West Division champion Edmonton Elks in what should be an outstanding matchup.

After landing in Calgary on Wednesday night, it’s been a pleasure to experience the passion for the CFL throughout the city. From meeting fans who have travelled from across the country to speaking with fellow media members, players and coaches, you quickly get a sense of how special event is. Grey Cup week always brings something unique to Canadian football, and the excitement surrounding this year’s matchup has been evident everywhere.

Last year, I went 5-0 with my Grey Cup selections. I’m not sure if I can follow that up, but I’ll certainly do my best. I’ve got some strong opinions heading into Sunday’s CFL championship game, and hopefully we can end the season on a high note.

Last week, we lost our side play on Winnipeg, bringing our season record to 16-11-2. For this year’s Grey Cup, I have three selections I’m targeting: one side play and two props. We’ll also combine all three into a same game parlay.

Montreal Alouettes first-half moneyline

I’m not eager to go against the Elks for the full 60 minutes, but I’m targeting the first half for Montreal to come out strong. Last year in the Grey Cup against the Roughriders, the Alouettes found themselves down 15-7 at the break. Turnovers, tough decisions and poor execution made the difference, so I’m expecting them to learn from that experience heading into this year’s championship.

The Alouettes led at halftime in 14 of their 18 regular-season games, posting an impressive average scoring margin of plus 6.67 points before the break. They’ve consistently been one of the league’s better teams out of the gate, and it’s not hard to understand why when you look at the talent they have on offence.

Montreal is led by the CFL’s Most Outstanding Player, quarterback Davis Alexander, along with Most Outstanding Canadian Tyson Philpot and all-star Tyler Snead, who finished second in the league in receiving yards. That’s an outstanding collection of offensive talent capable of putting points on the board early.

Edmonton, meanwhile, has been a much stronger second-half team, averaging 13.2 points in the first half compared to 16.1 after halftime. Montreal also led at halftime in both regular-season meetings between these teams. I respect what Edmonton has done, particularly after halftime, but with Montreal’s offensive weapons, their ability to start games strong and the motivation of last year’s Grey Cup loss, I like the Alouettes to take a lead into the break.

ShunDerrick Powell over 25.5 rushing yards

Many might not realize how much the Edmonton Elks have been splitting their backfield lately, which brings us to what I believe is one of the better value plays on the Grey Cup board. Edmonton finished the regular season as the CFL’s top rushing team, producing 2,287 yards on the ground and averaging over 127 rushing yards per game. While Justin Rankin has received much of the attention, Powell has quietly become an important part of their ground attack.

I don’t need Powell to take over this backfield to get past 25.5 rushing yards. He averaged an impressive 7.2 yards per carry during the regular season, clearing this number in five of his six appearances. He’s also shown he can make an impact without a huge workload, recording 38, 52 and 49 rushing yards in games where he received between five and 10 carries. Edmonton continued to involve him in the Western Final, where he finished with 31 yards on eight carries.

Rankin is obviously going to get his share of touches, and Montreal has been a respectable run defence this season. However, Edmonton has shown they can use both backs effectively, and their ability to create space in the running game gives Powell opportunities to make plays. At this number, I don’t need a massive performance. With a handful of carries and his explosiveness, I like his chances of getting over 25.5 rushing yards.

Tyler Snead over 68.5 receiving yards

Snead might be the second option in Montreal’s receiving game, but he finished second in the entire CFL in receiving yards this season. Being the No. 2 option, I feel we’re consistently getting value on his receiving numbers. My sources and projections have Snead going well over this total, and frankly, I think the number set by the sportsbooks is too low for a player with his body of work.

Snead put up 1,474 yards and 13 touchdowns across 16 appearances, averaging 92.1 receiving yards per game. He also cleared 68.5 yards in 12 of those 16 games, with a median of 82 yards. That’s a very reasonable number for a receiver who has been one of the most productive players in the league all season.

Snead has also had success against Edmonton, recording 80 receiving yards in their June meeting and 146 in August. What’s encouraging is that he was productive in both games alongside Philpot, so I don’t need one of Montreal’s top receivers to disappear for this prop to cash.

Snead’s ability to make plays after the catch gives him another way to get over this number. He recorded 555 yards after the catch this season, and his explosiveness means he doesn’t need every reception to be a deep ball to put up big numbers. I’ll always give Edmonton’s defence their respect, but I believe this number is simply too low. I’m expecting another strong performance from Snead on Sunday.

Grey Cup same game parlay

I fully expect this matchup to live up to the hype, and I’m feeling confident about all three selections heading into Sunday. Along with playing each wager individually, I’ll also be combining them into a same game parlay. With favourable weather expected in Calgary, everything is shaping up for an exciting Grey Cup, and I can’t wait to experience it in person.

Before wrapping things up, I want to thank everyone who has followed along with this column throughout the CFL season. It’s been a pleasure sharing my betting perspectives each week, and I hope you’ve enjoyed reading them as much as I’ve enjoyed writing them. I’m already looking forward to doing it all again next year.

That’s all for this season. Enjoy the Grey Cup, everyone!