Andrew McInnis’ CFL picks: Sell high on Elks, back Riders in rapid revenge

Photo courtesy: Saskatchewan Roughriders/Electric Umbrella/Derek Elvin.

What I’ve learned after many years of betting the CFL is that every game needs to be treated like its own individual matchup.

You can’t get too high or too low on a team, and falling in love with a club can be one of the worst things that happens to your betting strategy.

The previous week’s scoreboard can also be one of the biggest traps bettors fall into. Big offensive performances stick in people’s minds. A team overachieving or underachieving, or an offence or defence looking much better or worse than usual can lead to major overreactions.

The key is taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture. How do you view the team overall? What is happening within the roster? What type of scheduling spot are they in? Are there any quotes or storylines that could impact how a team approaches a game?

Being contrarian can lead to a ton of success. Many bettors wait until it’s too late to recognize when a team or player are performing well, and by then, the market has already adjusted.

Here are the four bets I’m backing in Week 9.

B.C. Lions vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers

If this CFL season has taught us anything, it’s how massive the drop-off can be from starting quarterbacks to backups around the league.

As difficult as under bets have been to find this season, this is one I can get behind with B.C.’s third-stringer, Kaidon Salter, making his first CFL start against Winnipeg backup Dru Brown, who is coming off his worst performance of the season.

This total is the lowest on the board for a reason.

When the season started, expectations were high for the Lions, but even with Nathan Rourke under centre, this offence had been underwhelming. Now, without him, things have only become more difficult.

Chase Brice came on in relief of Rourke against Edmonton and struggled, completing 20-of-34 attempts while throwing four interceptions with only one passing touchdown. Things didn’t improve much against Toronto, which forced B.C. to turn to Salter earlier than expected. While the rookie looked slightly sharper, the game was already out of reach by that point.

The biggest question heading into this matchup is how each coaching staff will approach this game. I’m not betting this under simply because backup quarterbacks are involved. I’m betting it because both teams are likely to simplify their offensive game plans.

B.C. doesn’t need Salter to win with his arm. They need him to avoid mistakes, extend drives and give their defence a chance to keep them in the game.

On the Winnipeg side, Brown enters this matchup after arguably the worst start of his season, throwing four interceptions against Calgary. I expect the Bombers to make a point of getting back to their identity and putting more responsibility on Brady Oliveira.

The problem? B.C.’s run defence has quietly been one of the best units in the CFL. If Winnipeg can’t establish Oliveira early, it could force Brown into obvious passing situations, which is exactly the type of scenario B.C.’s defence wants.

This feels like one of those games where both coaching staffs simplify everything. Establish the run, protect the quarterback, avoid turnovers and let the defence dictate the pace.

Don’t overthink this one. The betting market has this total six points lower than every other game on the Week 9 board, and that’s for good reason. The quarterback play, offensive limitations and strength of the B.C. run defence all point toward a game where points will be difficult to come by. Unless turnovers or special teams create short fields, I expect this to be the best under opportunity of the week.

Pick: under 54

Montreal Alouettes vs. Ottawa Redblacks

This is a perfect game for a prop bet. I don’t have it in me to take the Redblacks on the spread, but I’m more than happy to target a heavy passing workload from Jake Maier.

One mistake bettors often make with player props is assuming the player’s team needs to win for the over to hit. That’s not always the case. Sometimes the best environment for an offensive prop is a team playing from behind because the volume increases and garbage-time opportunities pile up.

That’s exactly the type of game script I’m expecting here.

Montreal leads the CFL in offensive production and has been capable of putting teams into catch-up mode all season. If that happens again, Maier should have the volume needed to attack this number. Over his last five starts, Maier has averaged more than 300 passing yards while attempting over 37 passes per game.

Even better, we’ve already seen this matchup produce exactly the type of script I’m expecting. Back in Week 4, Maier threw for 336 yards against Montreal despite Ottawa losing the football game. That’s why I’d rather attack his passing yards than take Ottawa against the spread.

If Ottawa hangs around, great. If Montreal builds a lead, even better. Either way, Maier should spend most of the night throwing the football.

Pick: Jake Maier over 287.5 passing yards

Calgary Stampeders vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Remember when I said you can’t fall in love with a team? This is the perfect example of why.

Last week, I cashed one of my favourite bets of the season on the Calgary Stampeders, and the result couldn’t have gone much better. But that game is in the past, and the Stampeders are in a completely different role this week.

In betting, you want to identify teams that succeed in specific situations. For Calgary, I’ve loved them as underdogs or near pick’em prices. Asking them to lay 5.5 points on the road is a completely different conversation.

As good as this Stampeders offence has been, we can’t ignore the other side of the football. Calgary has allowed at least 30 points in three straight games and continues to find itself involved in shootouts. I have a hard time trusting a team to cover this number when its defence is consistently allowing opponents to stay within striking distance.

Vernon Adams Jr. has gone from underrated to one of the biggest stories in the CFL this season. He has been outstanding, but that’s exactly why I’m willing to look the other way. Betting is about finding value before the market fully adjusts, not chasing what has already happened.

Hamilton’s offence has been inconsistent since Bo Levi Mitchell went down, but the defence has continued to be one of the team’s biggest strengths. The Tiger-Cats lead the CFL in passing yards allowed per game, rank second in points allowed per game, and lead the league in sacks. That gives Hamilton a legitimate way to disrupt an offence that has been rolling.

Tre Ford has had his ups and downs since taking over as the starting quarterback, but there have been plenty of positive signs. His ability to escape pressure and extend plays gives Hamilton an element that doesn’t always show up in the stat sheet.

It also appears Scott Milanovich has found a formula that works for Ford, keeping things simple, letting him use his athleticism, and allowing him to take what the defence gives him.

I’m not asking Hamilton to win this game. I’m asking them to keep it competitive for four quarters. The Calgary Stampeders as favourites is a situation where I want to be betting against them. Look for a tight one in the Hammer.

Pick: Hamilton +5.5

Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Edmonton Elks

The Edmonton Elks are the story of the 2026 CFL season. Who saw this coming?

After a major improvement from 2025, Edmonton has become one of the most talked-about teams in the league. But now we get to find out just how good they really are.

The Elks are being asked to beat the defending Grey Cup champions in back-to-back weeks, and that’s a spot I’m not interested in backing. Taking Edmonton this week feels like buying a stock at its highest point. Last week, the Elks were catching +4.5, and some books even showed +5.5. Now, after winning, they’ve flipped to laying points.

There’s no denying Edmonton has improved, but the value on this team was there earlier in the season. At this point, bettors are paying for what has already happened.

Rapid revenge doesn’t always lead to success, but I believe it sets up well here. Last week’s game was wild. Cody Fajardo threw for 510 yards and four touchdowns. Trevor Harris answered with 386 yards and four scores. After all of that, Edmonton still only won by two points on a walk-off field goal.

The question I’m asking myself is simple: how likely is it that Edmonton repeats that type of offensive performance?

Saskatchewan has been one of the CFL’s best defences at limiting explosive plays all season, making last week look more like an outlier than something we should expect again. The Roughriders don’t need to shut Edmonton down, they simply need to prevent another historic passing performance.

Harris already showed Saskatchewan can move the football in this matchup, and if this game plays out closer to a normal CFL game, I like the Riders chances of leaving Edmonton with a win.

Sell high on the Elks while you can, and back Saskatchewan in this rapid revenge spot.

Pick: Saskatchewan moneyline