Adam Chernoff’s CFL picks: bettors beware potential traps in Week 8

Photo courtesy: CFL.ca

This is a weird week of CFL betting.

Saskatchewan looked like they would open on Monday as a terrific short favourite playing with a massive motivational angle and with their defensive leader returning. That has now turned into a huge distraction as more details of the tragedy this past weekend have emerged. In general, I think the Elks are becoming slightly overpriced. Their 5-1 record includes two games against B.C. (one without Nathan Rourke) and Ottawa. I just can’t be comfortable laying 4 here without a clear idea of what is going on inside this Riders’ locker room.

Winnipeg got bet from +1.5 to -1.5 at the sharpest sportsbook on the board against Calgary. As much as I would love to tail the sharper sentiment and oppose the CFL national pick ’em, which has Calgary at 70 percent straight-up across several thousand users, I just see Winnipeg as a fade. They are a better team with Brown, but their season is full of messy games — a comeback OT win against Ottawa, a one-point comeback win against Hamilton without Bo Levi Mitchell, Toronto in a fake road game, and a last-second field goal to beat Calgary by two to open the season.

I had Toronto and B.C. circled as an “over of the year” candidate a couple weeks ago in the 3DownNation group chat. This game had everything going for it. B.C. returns indoors, Toronto in their final game of an impossible road stretch spanning two months, two terrible defences, and two QB’s that would be airing it out. Then Rourke went down last week. The total opened 57.5 and has been bet down to 56, which is the lowest on the board this week. As much as I want to go back and play the Argos -3.5 again, they showed last week that even when outgaining a backup QB by 1.3 yards per play, their defence still gives the game away.

That leaves the final game of the week. Montreal is laying 10 points, which is the highest spread of the season. I think Montreal is the side here. As mentioned, Hamilton was outgained last week by Toronto 7.7 yards per play to 6.4. The 218 passing yards from Ford were the lowest of any QB this season. Hamilton is going through a huge offensive transition. I want to fade that, but the matchup is just not ideal to lay this big of a number.

Ford against Thorpe’s man coverage is a boom-or-bust scenario. There are going to be holes and lanes, and if Ford escapes the pressure, he can scramble for plays. It’s not going to be sustainable and provide consistent offence, but it could be enough to keep this within double digits. I just have a hard time evaluating whether this Als defence, which replaced so much veteran talent, is starting to turn a corner and their numbers against the rush (second worst in the league) are skewed by facing Calgary twice, or if there are still issues here. Montreal has won five games this season, all by seven points or less. Even when sitting on big leads, they cannot hold them. So this is, reluctantly, another pass for me.

Week 9 looks like a much more promising week for betting.

Season record: 11-4 (+6.85x)

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