3DownNation CFL best bets: Week 4

Photo: Tanner Piper/Piper Sports Photography/3DownNation. All rights reserved.

We’re already at Week 4 in the Canadian Football League, and after three really entertaining weeks, I’m excited to see what’s ahead.

I mentioned this last week, but saw some comments on it, so I want to address it again: these are the best bets of the week. Just because we have four games on the schedule doesn’t mean each one is going to have a bet that works for us. Again, our only edge is that we get to pick and choose which bets we actually play on.

After a 3-2 record last week, I’ve identified a couple of really interesting plays, so let’s see if we can keep the momentum rolling.

Edmonton Elks at Winnipeg Blue Bombers — Thursday, June 25 at 8:30 PM EDT

The week kicks off with one of the surprises through the first three weeks of the year as the undefeated Edmonton Elks head into Winnipeg to take on the Blue Bombers.

When I started the dive into this game, my lean was to go with Winnipeg. As we discussed a couple of weeks ago, the Blue Bombers have been fantastic at Princess Auto Stadium for years. Plus, they’re coming off a bye, so it felt like things should lean their way.

But the more I look at the numbers, the more I am convinced that Edmonton was the only call here. The area that is impossible to ignore is the run game. Winnipeg has given up almost 50 more yards on the ground per game than any other team in the league. That’s not the category you want to be struggling in when you’re about to face Justin Rankin.

Rankin leads the league in rushing by 66 yards, and his 140.1 rushing yards per game is the best by 33 yards. He has been electric and is a huge reason for the hot start in Edmonton.

The Elks defence has also been a bright spot to start the season, as they have allowed the fewest points per game and the second-fewest passing yards in the league so far this year.

I expect Rankin to have another big game and for their defence to hold on enough to allow Edmonton to keep this one close.

Pick: Edmonton +3, Zach Collaros UNDER 280.5 passing yards, Justin Rankin OVER 86.5 rushing yards

Toronto Argonauts at Saskatchewan Roughriders — Friday, June 26 at 9:00 PM EDT

The Roughriders return home to take the Toronto on Friday Night Football in Regina.

Saskatchewan helped us get a win last week with their big first half against Calgary, so we’re going to go back to them this week.

The Roughriders put up 23 points in the first half last week, compared to the 17 they had in the second half and overtime. They have been very good at getting out to quick starts over the last couple of seasons. I anticipate that it will be the same under the lights in Regina.

Toronto has been in a couple of wild, high-scoring shootouts to start the season. With that said, they have allowed the second-most passing yards per game in the CFL to start the year. I’m not sure if we’re going to get another matchup of duelling 400-yard games, but there should be some big numbers in the passing game.

With that in mind, I think Trevor Harris’ favourite receiver is worth a look.

Kian Schaffer-Baker leads the team in targets and has nine or more targets in each of Saskatchewan’s first two games, and 130-plus yards in each. He has become a main focus for Harris when the team needs to move the chains. I expect Toronto’s struggling secondary to have some issues with the big Canadian this week.

Pick: Saskatchewan first half -2.5, Kian Schaffer-Baker OVER 80.5 Yards