Andrew McInnis’ CFL picks: Saskatchewan Roughriders record says one thing, recent play says another

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It’s a one-play card for us in Week 13, but one we’re attacking with confidence.

In Week 12, we went a perfect two-for-two with picks in the column, cashing tickets with Winnipeg and Toronto. This week, there’s an underdog that has caught my eye and continues to be undervalued.

Eligible sports bettors in Ontario and Alberta can find relevant information for wagering on the games by clicking on their respective jurisdiction. Please bet responsibly.

Toronto Argonauts @ Saskatchewan Roughriders

The betting market is asking you to expect the Roughriders to bounce out of their mini-slump. The number is telling you to trust Saskatchewan’s record, home-field reputation and the potential of what this team can be. I’m not interested in who the Riders were a month ago or who they could be at the end of the season — I want to talk about who they are right now.

There are times when it’s important to zoom out, and I’m a big fan of doing that. There are also times when current form matters, and that’s what stands out to me in this match-up.

Saskatchewan is 6-4, but the Riders have lost two straight and their offence has become increasingly difficult to trust. The receiving group has been hit hard by injuries, while Trevor Harris is being asked to create with less margin for error and fewer reliable weapons around him.

Toronto, meanwhile, is 5-5, but the Argos are trending in the right direction after a 39-20 win over Hamilton. They’ve also already beaten Saskatchewan 40-34 at Mosaic Stadium back in June. Having beaten a team already doesn’t mean it will happen again, but it certainly strengthens an already appealing spot for Toronto as a road underdog.

The Riders deserve credit for what they’ve accomplished this season, but I think the market is still pricing them like the defending champions and the team that started 4-1, rather than the team we’ve seen recently.

Saskatchewan is 2-3 over its last five games, while Toronto is 3-2. Over that stretch, the Riders have allowed 138 points, while the Argos have surrendered 128. It might not sound like a major difference, but it’s worth mentioning when we’re getting +4.5 points with the Boatmen.

Harris is also giving me more reasons to question where this offence is right now. I’m usually one to talk up Harris and his consistency, but that hasn’t been the case lately. He has thrown four interceptions over his last two games, and honestly, for those who have watched, that number could be even worse. Harris has made several turnover-worthy throws that opposing defenders failed to come down with.

Harris is struggling, but it’s not all on him. He’s being asked to do more with less around him. Samuel Emilus is out after suffering another leg injury, while Kian Schaffer-Baker has also been unavailable. Emilus has 38 catches for 514 yards and five touchdowns in seven games, making his absence a significant loss for Harris and this passing attack.

The Argos, meanwhile, have plenty of firepower. Toronto has five players with at least 500 receiving yards this season, giving Chad Kelly plenty of options to attack a Saskatchewan defence that has been excellent at limiting explosive plays. Kelly is also coming off a strong performance against Hamilton, completing 26-of-34 passes for 289 yards and three touchdowns while adding another score on the ground.

The other thing I like is the number itself. Toronto +4.5 gives us protection beyond the field goal. Toronto doesn’t need to dominate Saskatchewan and they don’t even need to win. They need to keep this game within one score, and I believe they are more than capable of doing that.

Saskatchewan has lost two straight, Harris has thrown four interceptions in his last two games, and the offence is dealing with significant injuries. Toronto is trending upward and has more than enough offensive firepower to keep this game close.

I think this is a much closer game than the market is telling us, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Toronto won outright.

Pick: Toronto +4.5

Eligible sports bettors in Ontario and Alberta can find relevant information for wagering on the games by clicking on their respective jurisdiction. Please bet responsibly.