Andrew McInnis’ CFL picks: overreactions to bet against in Week 12

Photo: Bob Butrym/RFB Sport Photography / 3DownNation. All rights reserved.

Week 12 presents a card that requires you to be selective. I’ve identified two betting spots, one underdog and one favourite, and both can easily be labelled as contrarian plays.

Last week, we went 1-1, with BC cashing as a 4.5-point underdog and winning outright, while Toronto couldn’t keep things competitive as a 3.5-point underdog against Edmonton. That’s the nature of the CFL.

We’re entering that part of the season where, for some teams, we know exactly who they are, while others are still trying to figure themselves out. This week should tell us a lot, but I’m going to the window with conviction on these two plays. Buckle up, let’s make some money.

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Winnipeg @ Edmonton

Edmonton may be 7-3, but I don’t think the gap between these teams is nearly as big as this spread suggests. Has anyone ever heard the expression, ‘Bet numbers, not teams?’ Well, this is the perfect example of that.

The Elks deserve a ton of credit for what they’ve done this season, especially after dominating Toronto 42-12 last week and making it look easy, but laying 5.5 points asks a completely different question. How often has Edmonton actually separated from its opponents to merit the expectation that they can win by this margin? Not nearly enough times, that’s for sure.

The Elks have won seven games this season, but only three of those victories have come by more than 5.5 points. Two came against Ottawa, by eight and 23 points, the other was last week’s 30-point win over Toronto. Get ready for the Edmonton overreaction crowd again this week, they’re back, and stronger than ever. The other four wins came by three points over Montreal in overtime, five over Winnipeg, two over BC and two over Saskatchewan. Winning games and covering numbers like this are two different things, and Edmonton has won a lot of tight ones.

The market, similar to the public, is treating Edmonton like an elite team instead of a team that has improved a lot this season but has won close games in the process. Before beating Toronto, the Elks had lost back-to-back games to Saskatchewan and Montreal by a combined 20 points. We saw exactly how close these teams can be the first time they met. Edmonton jumped out to a 17-0 lead, but Winnipeg rallied to take an 18-17 lead in the fourth quarter before the Elks eventually won 23-18 on a late touchdown. Winnipeg still covered this number despite falling behind by three scores, while Zach Collaros threw for 290 yards and two touchdowns. The Bombers showed they can hang around with this team.

On top of believing Edmonton is overvalued once again, I’m also much more interested in backing this version of Winnipeg than the team we saw earlier in the season. Coming out of a bye, the Bombers put up 33 points, got Collaros back and watched him throw for 222 yards, while Brady Oliveira delivered a huge performance with 154 yards. Oliveira’s status is uncertain for this week, but I trust Winnipeg’s depth, and I trust this team to perform in this spot.

This is a role I’m confidently betting on Winnipeg. Do I want the Bombers as a dog this season? Probably not right now. But as 5.5-point underdogs, getting healthier and looking to continue their positive momentum, this is a perfect spot.

There are a ton of things that have helped inflate the Elks, but one of the biggest is their league-best plus-11 turnover ratio. I don’t expect that kind of turnover production to continue all season. The Bombers also have the personnel to make life difficult for Cody Fajardo. Willie Jefferson and Jake Ceresna are tied for the league lead with six sacks each, giving Winnipeg two legitimate pass-rush threats. If the Bombers can avoid giving Edmonton short fields, I think this defence can keep the game within one score. Winnipeg is also 3-0 on the road this season, which gives me even more confidence that they can handle the environment in Edmonton.

I’m not saying Edmonton doesn’t deserve to be 7-3. What I am saying is that they don’t deserve to be laying points like this against a more than serviceable Winnipeg team. Getting 5.5 points here is a great bet, especially when the general public is ready to award Edmonton elite status that I’m not convinced they’ve earned.

Pick: Winnipeg +5.5

Hamilton @ Toronto

This is my overreaction game of the week, and it couldn’t set up any better. I find myself mentioning this weekly, but you need to look at each week as a new week and not get caught with recency bias, and that’s exactly what we’re going to do here.

Hamilton is coming off a massive upset win over Saskatchewan, while Toronto is coming off a 42-12 blowout loss in Edmonton. If you’re simply looking at what happened last week, taking Hamilton and the points makes plenty of sense. But I see value on the favourite.

Hamilton deserves credit for what it did against Saskatchewan, but I’m not ready to suddenly believe this is a completely different Tiger-Cats team. Tre Ford provided a huge spark after replacing Harrison Frost, completing 13-of-17 passes for 151 yards and a touchdown while adding 38 rushing yards. It was an excellent performance, but I’ve never been high on Ford as a starting quarterback, and I’m not going to change that opinion because of one strong relief appearance. Toronto has now had a full week to prepare for him, and I expect the Argos to make him win from the pocket.

The biggest edge in this matchup is at quarterback. Chad Kelly was poor last week, throwing for 265 yards, no touchdowns and an interception that turned into an 85-yard pick-six. But one bad game doesn’t erase what has been a proven Toronto offence, led by Kelly’s ability to make plays downfield. He has thrown for nearly 3,000 yards with 18 touchdowns while completing more than 70 per cent of his passes. I trust him much more to sustain an offence for four quarters than I do Ford, and the difference between the two should be evident.

Toronto’s 42-12 loss also wasn’t a true reflection of how good this team has been. The Argos have committed 11 turnovers over their last two games, and those mistakes have completely changed the scoreboard in both contests. If Kelly protects the football, I expect Toronto’s offence to look much more like the unit we saw earlier this season.

I also love the fact that Toronto is finally back home. The Argos opened the season with seven straight games away from BMO Field and are only playing their second true home game of the season. They beat Calgary 33-30 in their first game back, with Kelly throwing for 349 yards. Now they get a Hamilton team coming off an emotional upset win, with the market giving the Tiger-Cats plenty of credit for what happened last week.

This Argos team has the ability to put points on the board, and with Hamilton dealing with uncertainty at quarterback, I’m convinced this is a clear overreaction. Toronto is back home, Kelly should bounce back, and I expect the Argos to take advantage of a Tiger-Cats team coming off an emotional high.

Pick: Toronto -4.5

Eligible sports bettors in Ontario and Alberta can find relevant information for wagering on the games by clicking on their respective jurisdiction. Please bet responsibly.