3DownNation CFL best bets: Week 11

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It’s Week 11 in the Canadian Football League, and we have some interesting matchups that should help us figure out where these teams slot-in as we head towards Labour Day.

It was a down week for me last week, so let’s see if I can bounce back.

B.C. Lions at Calgary Stampeders — Thursday, Aug. 13 at 9:00 pm EDT

These are two teams in big need of a win in the tough West Division standings. The timing of this matchup is key as B.C. is re-finding its groove with back-to-back victories, and the Stampeders stumbled last week after a couple of strong performances.

One key matchup in this game could be Dedrick Mills against the Lions’ run defence. Mills came out of the blocks hot this year, but has slowed a little bit in the past month as Vernon Adams Jr. has heated up. Meanwhile, the Lions have the best run defence in the CFL this year.

When these two teams played back in Week 4, the Lions were able to limit Mills, holding the veteran running back to just 58 yards on 14 carries. This came after back-to-back 100-yard showings from Mills, and it remains his lowest yards-per-carry total this year.

While that battle is strength vs. strength, our next play is more strength vs. glaring weakness.

Calgary’s secondary gave Chad Kelly fits last week, but he was still able to throw for close to 350 yards. The passing total for Rourke is still a little rich for me at 335.5, so let’s look at one of his favourite targets to see if we can take advantage of this matchup.

No one in the CFL was happier to see Nathan Rourke return than Justin McInnis. The big Canadian receiver had his second 100-yard game of the season last week, going for 159 yards on five receptions and 11 targets. Rourke has targeted McInnis at least nine times in three of his five starts this year, which should mean big things for the Arkansas State product as he goes against the Stampeders, who have given up the second-most passing yards per game this year.

This should be a really good matchup, and it will tell us a lot about these two teams.

Pick: Dedrick Mills under 75.5 rushing yards, Justin McInnis over 76.5 receiving yards

Toronto Argonauts at Edmonton Elks — Saturday, Aug. 15 at 3:00 pm EDT

The Edmonton Elks are looking to get back on track as they take on the Toronto Argonauts, who are coming off a win against the Elks’ provincial neighbours.

It does feel like Edmonton is coming back to earth a bit after their hot start to the season, but their two losses on this mini-slide have come against last year’s Grey Cup teams — the first-place Alouettes, and the Riders, who are tied with Edmonton for top spot in the West. Most teams in the league would struggle with that duo.

Meanwhile, Toronto picked up a much-needed win last week against Calgary.

However, if Vernon Adams Jr. had anything other than a disastrous start, the Stamps probably would have ridden out of Toronto with a win. Chad Kelly really struggled with throwing the ball to people on his own team, tossing four picks in the loss. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance, but Edmonton has forced the most turnovers in the league this season.

I really don’t see Cody Fajardo and the Elks passing offence having the same struggles that Calgary had, and they should be able to get back on track this week in front of a growing Commonwealth Stadium crowd.

Pick: Edmonton -3.5