Adam Chernoff’s CFL picks: Winnipeg Blue Bombers top teams to fade list

Photo: Samantha Keen/3DownNation. All rights reserved.

After easily cashing our only play last week, the 2026 CFL season record for picks on sides and totals moves to 8-1.

Offensive pace and efficiency across the league remain at a record high. Through 14 games this season, teams are combining for 63.5 points per game and 7.6 yards per play.

This week the combined total of the four games adds up to 233.5. That total tops last week (231) as the highest point total expected for a four-game slate in league history.

Will games continue to fly over? My answer for the first game is a resounding yes.

Toronto Argonauts-Calgary Stampeders over 60.5 (-110)

I have been talking about it the entire season — Toronto is a dead over team. The aggression in play calling from Mike Miller and the willingness to fire for better or worse — 13 yards per pass, nine touchdowns, six interceptions — from Chad Kelly is beautiful to bet into.

The total sitting in the 60s is obviously catching up to the fact that the Toronto offence is phenomenal, but I don’t think the ceiling with these four receivers has been reached yet.

I like risking money on the over in this game with Calgary for a couple of reasons.

The biggest one is on the heels of something Dave Dickenson told the media on Wednesday. He said that with the short week and only one day of practice, the team has had a tough time preparing for the two new Argonauts coordinators and has not had the usual amount of information on the scheme and players.

I genuinely believe the team is unprepared for this new wave of aggression.

The second one is the efficiency of Vernon Adams Jr. He has done an unusually good, for him, job of taking care of the football. Aside from Week 1, when Calgary went run heavy versus Winnipeg, they have shown more aggression passing. Adams Jr. has been super efficient when forced to push the ball downfield. I buy into that continuing against this weak Argonauts secondary in a likely shootout.

But I also wonder when the mistakes will come back. Big plays are great for the over, but so are quarterbacks who force passes and turnovers.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats -3 (-120)

At the top of my list of teams to fade in the CFL is Winnipeg. After losing 37-27 to this Tiger-Cats team in Week 2, the Bombers went into a bye week before hosting the Elks at home. Coming out of the bye with extra time to prepare, the team fell behind 17-0 and never recovered. Sloppy mistakes, turnovers and errors contributed to the problems.

While commentary around the team the past 10 days has been… interesting… this, to me, signals one thing more than any other: questionable coaching and a disconnect from the players. Anytime a team in that situation especially one that has been dubbed the “biggest home-field advantage in the CFL” looks that bad at home, I see warning signs aplenty.

Everything about this coaching staff and team feels old and dated, too. In a league where offences are setting new records, Winnipeg ranks last in points per game and explosive plays. This team is one dire last-second drive against Calgary away from being 0-3 and facing serious questions.

Against this red-hot Hamilton offence off the bye, I don’t see the result being much better than in the first matchup.

Quick thought on Edmonton at B.C.

I have been betting or bookmaking in a professional manner for more than 17 years. Success in betting is all about backing teams at their bottom and fading teams at their peak.

The 3-0 Elks laying two points on a neutral field against the 0-3 Lions is about as peak versus bottom as it comes in the CFL. However, while I could never back the Elks here at a premium, I am making a rare exception and passing on betting the Lions this week.

This Lions team is grossly inept defensively. I use words to describe them in the group chat that are not appropriate for a published article, but I am astounded watching this team.

The defence is as bad as I have ever seen a professional team field. The Lions are allowing a league-worst 7.8 yards per play, and an insane, mind-numbing 161.1 pass efficiency rating against. Quarterbacks are completing 80 percent of their passes against this secondary. It’s so soft and spineless, it’s bizarre. Their veteran defensive leader did a halftime interview last week, and after seeing his unit get embarrassed for a third week in a row, he said the plan for the second half was “to have fun.”

What?

This is beyond bad for Mike Benevides and his unit. I cannot back this team this week.

Season record: 8-1 (+7.25x).