3DownNation CFL best bets: Week 5

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The Canadian Football League enters Week 5, and while the season feels like it’s flying by, we’re also starting to see some trends developing with these teams.

Last week was another 3-2 week for me. This week, two games are catching my eye with multiple plays in each.

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Toronto Argonauts at Calgary Stampeders — Thursday, July 2 at 9:00 p.m. EDT

It’s the second edition of the Stampede Bowl with the Calgary Stampeders facing the Toronto Argonauts on the unofficial kickoff day for the Calgary Stampede.

And while the locals are debating whether “Yeehaw” is better than “Yahoo,” they are also breathing a sigh of relief after picking up their first win of the season. Meanwhile, the Argos sail into Calgary at 2-1 coming off their best performance of the year in a win over the Grey Cup champion Saskatchewan Roughriders.

It’s fitting that this game is happening during Stampede because it has all the makings of a Wild West shootout. These are the top two scoring teams in the league, while both defences are allowing over 30 points per game and rank in the bottom-three in passing yards allowed.

That last stat provides a significant advantage for Toronto. Vernon Adams Jr. is a very good QB and has been transformational to this era of Calgary Stampeders football, but he’s not exactly airing it out all over the place. He has only thrown for more than 285 yards once since Week 10 last year. This team has had more success with a balanced approach as they have dealt with injuries in their receiving room.

The matchup that should decide this is in the run game, where Calgary is second in rushing yards per game, while Toronto has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league. Now, Toronto has also faced the fewest rushing attempts in the league because why run on a team that’s giving up 377 yards per game through the air? This will be a big test of that part of their defence.

On the other side, Calgary’s defence is getting healthier and better with Jaylon Hutchings and Folarin Orimolade back from injury, but their secondary is still a work in progress.

Calgary has given up 355 yards per game through the air this year, and that number is helped significantly by Zach Collaros only getting 233 yards against them in Week 1. They are facing Chad Kelly, who has 320-plus passing yards and multiple TD passes in every game this year.

The biggest key to this game could be second down. Calgary’s defence has struggled to get teams off the field on second down, and in particular on second-and-long. Teams have converted on second-and-seven-plus at a 47.1 percent clip this year, the worst in the CFL.

I don’t think Calgary can win a true shootout with Toronto, and the only way they can control the pace of this game is if they can get the ball out of Chad Kelly’s hands. Even with the improvements up front, I’m not sure they can do that enough to get the win here.

We’ve seen games that should be crazy shootouts turn into grind-it-out matchups. Even with the total as high as it is, I still think these two teams stack up in a way that gives us the high-scoring matchup we want. 

Pick: Toronto +1.5, Over 60.5, Vernon Adams Jr. Under 285.5 passing yards

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Ottawa Redblacks — Friday, July 3 at 7:30 p.m. EDT

Saskatchewan looks to bounce back from their loss against Toronto with a matchup against their Ontario rivals, the Ottawa Redblacks, who are looking for their first win.

Saskatchewan couldn’t help us out with our first-half bet last week, giving up a late touchdown to the Argos. I still stand by the play, though, and we’ll try it again this week.

So far this year, Saskatchewan has scored more points in the second quarter than they have in the third and fourth quarters combined. Meanwhile, Ottawa is allowing 18 points per game in the first half this year, so I expect another quick strike for Saskatchewan this week.

Passing yards in the CFL are up by just over 100 yards per game this year compared to this time a season ago, so taking a passing yard under feels like a tricky play. With that said, I’m not really buying Jake Maier’s line being set at 300.

Saskatchewan has allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game this year, and that has come facing Kelly, Adams Jr., and Nathan Rourke.

Maier is coming off a 300-yard game against Montreal, but I wouldn’t exactly put him in a category with the other three quarterbacks. Heck, it was Maier’s first 300-yard passing game since August 2024. I know he’s been a backup for part of that time, but that’s still a stretch of 14 appearances. I don’t see Corey Mace’s defence having another tough day against Maier.

This feels like a good bounce-back spot for Saskatchewan against an Ottawa team that is still trying to find its way.

Pick: Saskatchewan First Half -3, Saskatchewan -4.5, Jake Maier Under 300 passing yards