Week 2 is here in the Canadian Football League, giving us a chance to learn some lessons from last week.
We went 2-2 in Week 1 and now that we have one data point for most of the league, let’s see if we can find an edge.
Montreal Alouettes at Ottawa Redblacks — Friday, June 13, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Ottawa Redblacks return home after a disappointing Week 1 loss against Saskatchewan to take on the tough Montreal Alouettes. The Redblacks had some flashes against Saskatchewan with a late comeback making the score look a little closer than the game actually was.
Ottawa’s offence has a lot of promising pieces that showed up in their failed comeback attempt, but their defence is still a work in progress. The secondary got picked apart by Trevor Harris, Samuel Emilus, and the rest of the Green-and-White passing attack, which isn’t optimal heading into a matchup with Austin Mack and Tyson Philpot. Keep an eye out for Mack and Philpot props as the week goes on.
Another area of concern was the run game. Saskatchewan didn’t put up major numbers on the ground against Ottawa but Thomas Bertrand-Hudon passed the eye test after he came in for A.J. Ouellette. Now Ottawa has to deal with Sean Thomas-Erlington, a similar style runner who averaged a solid 5.1 yards per carry last week.
On the plus side for Ottawa, they moved the ball quite effectively without getting much from Kalil Pimpleton. They will be facing a Montreal defence that allowed Nick Arbuckle to complete four passes 20-plus yards downfield. The Redblacks were also dominant at home last season, going 7-1.
However, I just feel this Montreal group is a more complete team right now, and I don’t know how many more chances I’ll have to take Montreal at plus money.
PICK: Montreal +100
Calgary Stampeders at Toronto Argonauts — Saturday, June 14, 4:00 p.m. EDT
One of the most impressive teams from Week 1 in the CFL meets one of the most disappointing as the Calgary Stampeders head to Toronto to take on the Argos.
Vernon Adams Jr. breathed new life into Calgary’s offence in a 38-26 win over the Tiger-Cats despite throwing zero touchdown passes and two interceptions. Instead, the standouts were Clark Barnes, who had 112 receiving yards, and Dedrick Mills, who scored three rushing touchdowns that helped put Hamilton away.
One has to assume that with Adams looking like his pre-injury self from last year, the touchdowns will come and Dominique Rhymes, who had a quiet debut with the Stampeders, could unlock even more in a suddenly intriguing offence in Southern Alberta.
On the opposite side of things, Toronto’s offence never really found its footing against Montreal in Week 1. They’ll face a Stampeders defence that fared better than most imagined last week, though it was aided by a few Hamilton self-inflicted wounds along the way. I expect Toronto’s offence to look a bit better than last week, and I don’t think Calgary’s defence will have the same success they did against Hamilton.
You don’t want to overreact to one week, but Calgary looked great and Toronto didn’t in Week 1. Add on the edge that Calgary should have at QB this week — assuming Chad Kelly remains on the injured list — and it feels like a strong underdog play this week.
PICK: Calgary +3.5
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Hamilton Tiger-Cats — Saturday, June 14, 7:00 p.m. EDT
The Riders looked impressive for most of their outing against Ottawa. I don’t want to write-off their late-game struggles as a team that took its foot off the gas, but I do trust what I saw in the middle part of that game more than I do the frantic Ottawa comeback.
In the parts where Saskatchewan was in control, Trevor Harris was his usual self. Harris specializes in the “take what the defence gives you” style of offence and what Hamlton’s defence gave Calgary in Week 1 was “everything.” It feels like he could be in line for another big game.
Harris is obviously a very different quarterback than Hamilton faced last week in Adams, but the problems they have to work through are ones that Harris should be able to exploit.
Saskatchewan’s defence had a couple breakdowns late — almost all of them involving Tevaughn Campbell — but held their own against a dangerous Ottawa offence. It doesn’t get any easier against Hamilton, a team that has too much talent to stumble the way it did in Week 1 for long.
I expect a bounce-back from Hamilton’s offence this week, but I also expect their defence will have the same issues they had last week. Meanwhile, I believe Saskatchewan’s offence will stay hot and Saskatchewan’s defence can get enough stops — or any stops — to get them the W in a shootout to finish the week.
