CFL playoff predictions: best bets for Redblacks at Argos, Lions at Riders

Photo: Matt Smith/CFL

The Canadian Football League playoffs are almost here, which means we’re entering the best time of year. While only two games are on the schedule this week, there are still opportunities to place some prudent wagers.

We had a tough week capping the regular season, but we’re still 9-4 in the last month. It seems we’re peaking at the right time, so let’s get into it.

East Semi-Final: Ottawa Redblacks vs. Toronto Argonauts — 3:00 p.m. EDT

A strong close to the season has given the Toronto Argonauts home-field advantage for the East Semi-Final against the Ottawa Redblacks. This will be the first postseason meeting between the clubs since 1990.

The fortunes of both these teams turned after Ottawa beat Toronto on Sept. 7. The loss pushed the Double Blue to an even 6-6 record while improving the Redblacks to 8-3-1. Things have obviously turned since as the Argos won four of five before losing a meaningless game in Week 21, while the Ottawa lost five in a row after that game before a win in a meaningless game to close the regular season.

The Redblacks’ offence has struggled greatly since their hot start. They turned the ball over an absurd 22 times in their last eight games, scored the fewest touchdowns of any team this season, and finished second-last in points scored.

If you’re looking for a positive for Ottawa, they played well against Toronto’s defence this year, scoring 72 points in their two games against the Argos. However, their two games against Toronto were the only times they scored more than 21 points in a game post-Labour Day outside of their eruption against Hamilton last week.

Ottawa’s defence has done a good job keeping points off the board, but they’re giving up a lot of yards through the air. The Redblacks allowed 299-plus yards passing in six of their last eight games, including a 331-yard outing for Argos’ quarterback Chad Kelly a couple of weeks ago. They’ve stopped much of that production from turning into points, but these things tend to catch up to you in the postseason.

Kelly has thrown only two interceptions over his last five starts but it should be noted that he threw four against the Redblacks on Sept. 7, a big part of why Toronto lost that game. If he can’t protect the football — remember last year’s East Final? — his team will be in trouble once again.

Ottawa had a really nice turnaround season but they struggled against better opposition this year. They went 3-7-1 against teams that qualified for the playoffs and none of those wins came on the road.

The good news for Redblacks fans is that Montreal had a similar mark last year going into the playoffs and things ended pretty well for them. Could that happen this year for Ottawa? Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet on it — which is kind of the point of this whole thing.

Pick: Argos -6.5 AND Kelly Over 298.5

West Division Semi-Final: B.C. Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders — 6:30 p.m. EDT

The Saskatchewan Roughriders have returned to the playoffs to host the B.C. Lions with a matchup against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the West Final on the line.

Both these teams had trouble finding consistency this year.

The roller-coaster in Riderville went like this: 5-1 start; winless in seven straight (0-6-1); four straight wins; meaningless loss to Calgary.

B.C. was also all over the place: 5-1 start; five-game losing streak; 4-3 to finish the year.

The reason for optimism on the West Coast rests on Vernon Adams Jr.’s shoulders. He was on pace to threaten Doug Flutie’s passing records before an injury derailed his season and cost him his starting role until very late in the year.

Adams lit up the Riders’ defence for 451 yards in Week 6. At the time, this was his fourth straight game over 330 yards. He returned to the starting role in their season finale with 385 yards.

Saskatchewan’s defence dealt with injuries in the middle of the year but finished really strong. Before their season finale against Calgary — for which many key players didn’t suit up — the Riders had held starting QBs to under 280 yards in three of four games while forcing 13 takeaways. Saskatchewan’s plus-26 turnover differential is by far the best in the league and better than the next four teams combined. The one vulnerability Adams showed this year was protecting the ball as he gave up nine interceptions in just eight full games.

The Riders have often made their opponents one-dimensional this year, holding William Stanback to 14 yards on 12 carries early in the year. A couple of weeks ago, he improved on that mark with a blistering 35 yards. Saskatchewan finished the regular season with the best run defence in the CFL, forcing teams to throw the ball and, a few times a game, those throws ended up going the Riders’ way.

Adams is fantastic, and going against him is no fun, but this Riders’ defence found something in the back part of this season, so I think they take the game while shutting down Stanback for the third time this year.

Going against Ottawa on the road AND a running back under against Saskatchewan? We really are playing the hits in the biggest games of the year so far.

Pick: Riders -3.5 AND William Stanback UNDER 50.5 yards