CFL Week 19 predictions: best bets for Argos at Bombers, Elks at Stamps, Redblacks at Als

Photo: Patrick Doyle/CFL

It’s Thanksgiving Weekend north of the 49th parallel and in the Canadian Football League, which means there are only three weeks left in the regular season. Five of the six playoff spots are accounted for but there is still a lot to be decided as we head down the stretch.

We went 3-0 in this space last week, giving us a 6-3 record in the last three weeks, so let’s keep the good times going.

Friday, Oct. 11: Toronto Argonauts vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers — 8:30 p.m. EDT

Two teams with a lot still to play for kick-off Week 19 in the CFL with the Boatmen heading into Winnipeg to face the Bombers.

Winnipeg is the hottest team in the league following their eighth win in a row last week, a 31-10 victory over Hamilton that has them one win away from clinching the top spot in the West Division. It was the second straight blowout win for the Bombers, who have won their last two games by a combined score of 86-37.

When you have a plus-49 point differential in a two-game period, it’s safe to say that everything is going well for you. We’ll start on the defensive side where Winnipeg has been strong all year. The Bombers have allowed the fewest points per game and the lowest net offence of any team in the league.

They have also allowed the fewest passing yards per game this season, with Montreal over 20 yards per game back in second place. Since their two shootouts with Saskatchewan in the Labour Day Classic and Banjo Bowl, the Bombers’ defence has limited opposing starters to under 200 yards per game.

This sets up an interesting matchup with Chad Kelly, who came back from suspension firing away. Those numbers have cooled down a bit since but there’s no question Kelly is capable of having a big game.

On the other side of the ball, the Argos’ defence has been giving up points lately. Toronto has allowed 30-plus points in three of their last four games. One area where the Double Blue have struggled all year is giving up the big play. The Argos are in the bottom third of that category, while Zach Collaros has at least one completion of 50 yards or more in back-to-back games.

The Argos can clinch a playoff spot with a win, but the Bombers are just on another level. Kelly is certainly capable of having a big game but if I were a betting man — and isn’t that the point of this whole thing? — I’d say Winnipeg limits him just like they have everyone else as of late.

Pick: Winnipeg -3.5 AND Chad Kelly under 275.5 pass yards

Saturday, Oct. 12: Edmonton Elks at Calgary Stampeders — 3:00 p.m. EDT

Two teams with absolutely nothing to play for face off on Saturday afternoon as Calgary takes on the Elks.

Edmonton was the talk of the league for a decent stretch in late summer but back-to-back losses to Winnipeg and another to Saskatchewan ended their playoff hopes.

Meanwhile, Calgary hasn’t been able to get out of first gear all season long and now it feels more like they’re going in reverse. The team hasn’t won back-to-back games all year and are now in the midst of a six-game winless skid.

With Edmonton having lost three in a row, this is normally where you could use the cliche “someone’s ‘0’ has to go” but given that we’ve seen two ties this year — including one featuring Calgary — I don’t want to jinx it.

While the province of Alberta has just one more win than the province of Saskatchewan in the league this year, there are a couple of positive stats that we can look at to try and find an edge in this matchup.

The output hasn’t led to a lot of wins, but the Elks sit second in points per game this year with the majority of that work coming with Macleod Bethel-Thompson under centre. This week, Tre Ford will get the start but he could stack up really well against Edmonton’s southern rivals.

The Stamps’ defence has struggled against the run this year, allowing 122 yards per game on the ground, which is the most in the CFL. Ford hasn’t been as aggressive running the ball so far this year, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t had an effect on the run game.

Ford has seen considerable action in three games this year: Week 8 vs. Hamilton, Week 9 vs. Saskatchewan, and Week 16 vs. Winnipeg. In two of those games, Edmonton’s leading rusher went for over 150 yards and in the other one, the Elks were behind by a lot early and abandoned the run, though Javon Leake still averaged 6.5 yards on eight carries.

When Ford plays, opposing teams get so focused on the University of Waterloo product that they have trouble stopping other ball carriers. Calgary has been bad at stopping those anyway this season, so this seems like a bad matchup.

With Ford getting a rare start for Edmonton and Calgary seemingly turning to Matt Shiltz for the first time this year, the player prop market may understandably be limited this week — nothing has been posted at the time of this writing — but try to keep an eye out for any Elks running props.

Edmonton’s defence has been bad enough that this game could go over, but it’s tough to trust the Calgary offence to hold up their end of that bargain. So instead, we’ll just take the points with the Elks this week.

Pick: Edmonton +1.5

Monday, Oct. 14: Ottawa Redblacks vs. Montreal Alouettes — 1:00 p.m. EDT

The Als and Redblacks meet in what has turned into a Thanksgiving Monday tradition.

Neither team is coming into this one playing their best ball. Montreal is hoping to regain their form from the beginning of the season and avoid falling into the same trap Toronto did last year.

Since clinching a playoff spot in a totally normal fashion, which certainly didn’t include a mathematical error from the league, the Alouettes are 1-2-1 and have scored more than 30 points just once, while allowing their opponents to reach that marker twice.

The good news for them is Ottawa has seemed to be good for what ails the Als. Montreal has forced eight turnovers in their two meetings while holding Ottawa to 33 points total. For reference, Montreal scored more than that in their 47-21 win over Ottawa in Week 3.

This also isn’t a good time for Ottawa to be facing a defence that they struggle against. Over the past five games, the Redblacks’ offence has averaged just 20 points per outing — and that includes a 41-point outburst against Toronto — while averaging three turnovers per game.

Since that 41-27 win over Toronto in Week 14, Ottawa has gone 0-3, scoring a total of 49 points — just over 16 points per game — and turned it over 12 times.

Yes, Ottawa has a lot to play for with their edge over the Argos in the East Division standings down to just one point. However, Ottawa’s issues go well beyond simply “wanting it more.” Montreal has the group and the game plan to be able to take advantage of those issues.

Pick: Montreal -4.5