The Canadian Football League is heading into Week 17 with only one of six playoff spots accounted for, so this stretch run should be wild.
We went 2-0 last week, giving us two perfect weeks in the last three and while it’s been tough for anyone in the CFL to build momentum this year, there are a couple of spots we’re going to highlight below to try to keep that ball rolling in the right direction.
Friday, Sept. 27: Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. B.C. Lions — 10:30 p.m. EDT
The suddenly surging Hamilton Tiger-Cats head out west for a Friday night date with the B.C. Lions.
Hamilton has won a season-high three games in a row after their win over Toronto last week. The Lions, meanwhile, are hoping their bye week helped them regroup following a loss to the Argonauts.
Their most recent loss was a setback, but B.C. was playing well before that. Nathan Rourke was finding his rhythm coming off back-to-back 300-yard games before stumbling against the Argos. Given an extra 14 days to get back into a groove, it seems like there’s a good chance he could find his pre-NFL form again.
Hamilton likely won’t make it easy on him, though. As we explained last week, the Tiger-Cats defence has seen quite an improvement since Chris Jones took over its controls. They gave up 30 points to Toronto last week but Chad Kelly was held to 255 yards through the air. The defensive improvement has been a big reason why Hamilton has worked its way back into the playoff picture.
One of the more interesting battles of the game will be when Hamilton has the ball. Bo Levi Mitchell continues to a) throw the ball to the right team and b) pick up huge amounts of yardage while doing so. The two-time CFL M.O.P. is in the conversation to win the award again with 690 more passing yards than anyone else in the league this season. His 362 yards against Toronto last week was his second-highest total of the year and marked the fourth time in five games he’s thrown for 290+ yards.
The 33-year-old will be facing a Lions defence that has been getting better as the season goes on. In the three games since Mathieu Betts rejoined the team, B.C. has allowed an average of 22.6 points per game and not allowed a 270-yard passer in any of those contests. Betts has individually recorded eight tackles and one sack.
It looks like Ben Hladik could be back in the lineup for the Lions, according to the team’s injury report this week. The UBC product has 51 tackles in 10 games this year and, if he does play, will provide another interesting piece to an already fun chess match between Bo Levi Mitchell and this rapidly improving Lions defence.
Both teams can put up points but they’ve also been good at limiting their opponents lately. I expect that will keep this game low-scoring with the Lions able to pull ahead for a win.
Pick: B.C. -7 AND Under 53.5
Saturday, Sept. 28: Ottawa Redblacks vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders — 3 p.m. EDT
The Ottawa Redblacks head west to face the Saskatchewan Roughriders on Saturday afternoon. These teams, which used to share a name, decided to share the same score the last time they played against one another, playing to a 22-22 tie.
The Redblacks have gone 3-3 since the draw while Saskatchewan finally picked up their first post-tie win last weekend in Calgary. Ottawa’s record since that game is better, but the play as of late may give Saskatchewan the edge.
The Green and White snapped a seven-game winless skid last weekend when they beat the Stampeders 37-29 at McMahon Stadium. Ryquell Armstead was the star of the show in his Riders debut. To paraphrase late WWE announcer Gorilla Monsoon, it was the unstoppable force against the very moveable object as Armstead carved up Calgary’s run “defence” for 207 yards, setting a new record.
The Redblacks have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game this season, though their recent track record leaves a bit to be desired. Montreal barely ran at all last week but before that, Ottawa had allowed a runner to get 90+ yards in three of their previous four games. That’s not ideal.
The big key for Ottawa against Armstead is to stop him on first down. For weeks in this space, we have expressed some frustration with Saskatchewan’s run-heavy strategy on first down. Well, it worked last week.
17 of Armstead’s 25 carries last week came on first down and he went for 137 yards on those touches, averaging 10.5 yards per carry. Of those 17 carries, 14 of them were for 5-plus yards, giving the Riders a lot of options on second-and-short. If Ottawa lets Armstead repeat those numbers, they’ll likely be a tough afternoon on the prairies.
And, of course, there’s the revenge angle with Armstead getting let go by the Redblacks earlier this year. He downplayed that angle after his record-setting performance last week, but it makes it fun for us anyway.
While their defence will have their hands full, the Redblacks offence has a lot of questions to answer.
Ottawa’s offence has scored 21 points or fewer in three of their last four games and they’ve scored just 12 points in two of those. The team has also turned the ball over nine times in the last two games. Even with two turnovers forced in the last three games, Saskatchewan’s defence leads in the league in takeaways, making them a tough team to face when you’re having ball-control issues.
Jeremiah Masoli will start under centre this week and he’s been effective when he’s stepped on the field this year. However, the Oregon alumnus has been prone to turnovers at times with double-digit interception totals in two of his three full seasons in Hamilton. Maybe his veteran presence will be enough to help a bit but Ottawa still has a lot to figure out.
Travel has also not been kind to Ottawa this year. The Redblacks are 2-4 on the road this season with their wins coming against Calgary and Edmonton, who were still coached by Chris Jones at the time. They won those games by a combined five points and their four road losses have come by an average of 16 points per game.
We know these teams were evenly matched earlier in the year, but it feels like things are heading in the wrong direction for Ottawa.
Pick: Saskatchewan -3.5
Saturday, Sept. 28: Montreal Alouettes vs. Toronto Argonauts — 7 p.m. EDT
The CFL week closes with the Montreal Alouettes heading into Toronto to take on the Argonauts.
The Boatmen will be looking to bounce back from their tough loss to Hamilton last weekend. It was the latest in a string of tough games for their defence, which allowed a 300-yard passing game for the third outing in a row and for the fourth time in five games. This now has Toronto second-last in the league in passing yards allowed.
Toronto has also struggled in giving up big plays this year. The Argos are last in the league in big plays allowed, while no team has generated more big plays than Montreal. Granted, Tyson Philpot — who is out for the year due to injury — generated a lot of those big plays, but Fajardo was still taking shots downfield last week against Ottawa even while dealing with some obvious discomfort.
One area in which Toronto has been able to thrive is in run defence, which is the best in the league. There’s just one issue: Montreal doesn’t run the ball. Like, at all. The Als are last in the league in rushing attempts, averaging just over 16 per game.
Walter Fletcher is Montreal’s leading rusher but they primarily use him in the passing game. Fletcher has carried the ball in every one of Montreal’s 14 games this season but registered only 21 carries in the last three games combined. He’s also had double-digit carries just once since Week 4.
For further context, A.J. Ouellette has three more carries than Fletcher on the year and he’s only played one game since July. Some people don’t like running the ball and Jason Maas is clearly one of those people. However, in this case, that can help the team stay away from the strength of the Argos defence.
In a late-season spot, you would think the Argos would be able to point to home-field advantage as an edge they would have, but Montreal would beg to differ. The Als haven’t lost on the road yet this season with a tie against Calgary being the only blemish on an otherwise perfect record away from home.
Montreal still isn’t as sharp as they were at the beginning of the year, but it looks like they are catching the Boatmen at the right time this week.
Pick: Montreal -1.5
