The Canadian Football League heads into Week 16 and the only thing you can predict in this league is unpredictability.
Think about what we saw last week. Toronto had only one road win going into a matchup with the Lions, who looked like they had figured it out. So of course, Toronto won.
The Ottawa Redblacks seemed to have moved into the elite category in the CFL, facing the worst team in the league, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. So of course, Ottawa lost.
Calgary has been dreadful in almost every area for two months. They were taking on Montreal, who have the best record in the league. So of course, they tied.
But it is a new week and a chance to look for new advantages, so let’s get to it.
Friday, Sept. 20: Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Toronto Argonauts — 7:00 p.m. EDT
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats have worked their way into the cross-over conversation with back-to-back wins. They face the Argos in Toronto to kick off Week 16.
Toronto is coming off of a very impressive performance against the B.C. Lions, picking up a 33-17 win to move within three points of the Redblacks for second in the East. To continue with the theme of “nothing makes sense,” Chad Kelly threw for 268 yards in that game — his lowest total since returning from suspension. So, naturally, it was their second-largest margin of victory on the year and easily their biggest since Kelly came back.
They are facing a Hamilton Tiger-Cats team that has won back-to-back games and is coming off a very impressive victory over the Ottawa Redblacks. Hamilton may have dug themselves too deep of a hole in the East playoff race, but they are just three points back of Saskatchewan for the cross-over.
A couple of factors have led to their improvement. The first is they have done a better job of taking care of the ball. Hamilton has a +6 turnover differential in their last three games and Bo Levi Mitchell has just one interception over that span. There were stretches earlier in the year where the Ti-Cats would have been happy with Bo throwing just one interception in three quarters.
When this offence isn’t giving the ball to the other team, it’s actually pretty good. The Tabbies have scored 30+ points in back-to-back games and are fourth in the league in points per game. They are the only team in the CFL that is averaging over 300 yards passing a game and they lead the league in net offence.
They are facing an Argos defence that did give B.C. problems last week but has struggled to defend the pass. Before last week, Toronto’s defence had given up 285+ yards through the air in four of five games, including once to Bo Levi Mitchell. The Argos sit in the bottom third in the league in passing yards allowed per game.
The other thing that has turned around in Hamilton is the defence. By the time Chris Jones was done in Edmonton, many fans were so ready to get him out of town they would have driven him to the airport themselves, but he has rebounded in Hamilton very well. In the three games since he officially took over, the Ti-Cats have allowed 24 points per game. If that were their season total, it would be the third-best average in the league. Jones has been able to get the most out of some pretty talented players in his stint in Hamilton so far.
This last note is a little more narrative-based than I normally like to do. Yes, Toronto vs. Hamilton is a rivalry game, but the Argos have a massive game with Montreal coming up next week in Toronto. Hamilton could take advantage of an Argos team that is already looking ahead to next week.
The Ti-Cats have not done well outside of Hamilton this year but with the defence playing as well as they are, I do think they keep this one close.
Pick: Hamilton +6.5
Saturday, Sept. 21: Montreal Alouettes at Ottawa Redblacks — 3:00 p.m. EDT
The top two teams in the CFL meet in Ottawa as the Redblacks host Montreal. Both teams are coming off of frustrating games last week with Ottawa turning the ball over five times against Hamilton in a losing effort, while Montreal tied with Calgary.
You could explain Ottawa’s performance last week away as just a look-ahead spot, knowing this battle for first place was coming up this week. But that game was a reminder of some of the issues Ottawa had the last time they faced Montreal.
These two teams met back in Week 3 with Montreal forcing four turnovers in a 47-21 win over Ottawa. That game has helped Montreal to the third-best turnover differential in the league at +9, while Ottawa is the third-worst team in that category.
The Ottawa defence has started to stumble lately as well. They have given up 27 points or more in all five games they have played since their tie with Saskatchewan in Week 10 back at the beginning of August. Now they will be without Adarius Pickett for the rest of the season after his Achilles injury last week. Pickett is second on the team in tackles with 52 while adding one sack, one interception, and one force fumble to his stat line.
Montreal’s offence has been quiet lately, but with Ottawa’s defence struggling and now missing one of its key members, this could be a good spot for the Alouettes to get back on track and essentially put the East out of reach.
