It is the biggest weekend on the Canadian Football League calendar. Labour Day is here and the classic rivalries will take on a little more importance this year with the standings being as close as they are.
These matchups also give us a few interesting plays this week, so let’s get into it.
Saturday, August 31: Ottawa Redblacks at BC Lions — 7:00 p.m. EDT
As always, Labour Day weekend starts with the classic non-rivalry game as the B.C. Lions and Ottawa Redblacks head out to Victoria for Touchdown Pacific.
This is a rematch from last week’s game, a 34-27 win for Ottawa. It was the second straight frustrating outing for Nathan Rourke, who threw for just 234 yards and an interception in the loss. Eye test-wise, he looked a bit better than he did in his season debut, but there is still a long way to go for him to get back to his 2022 form.
One thing working in Rourke’s favour is the number of weapons he has at his disposal. Even with a dip in production since Vernon Adams’ injury, Justin McInnis still leads the league in receiving with 150 more yards than second-place Justin Hardy. It is a breakout year for McInnis, who has already set career highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns.
He has also caught Rourke’s attention. McInnis leads the team in targets in the two weeks that Rourke has been back with 15 looks total. That number would have likely been higher but Redblack’s pressure started to get to Rourke in the second half of the game in Ottawa. All five of McInnis’ targets came in the first quarter and he still finished the game as the Lions leading receiver with 79 yards.
If Rourke can have a little more time to look downfield, McInnis should be in for a big day in the B.C. capital.
Pick: Justin McInnis over 74.5
Sunday, September 1: Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders — 7:00 p.m. EDT
The rivalry portion of Labour Day weekend kicks off in Saskatchewan on Sunday night with the Riders looking to end their skid against the last team they beat, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
Since that early season meeting in Regina, the Bombers are 3-1 while the Riders have gone 0-4-1.
The wins haven’t been there for the Green and White, but the defence certainly has been. Corey Mace’s group has allowed more than 30 points just three times this year and only once in the last six weeks.
The highlight of that unit has been its play against the run. Saskatchewan has the second-best run defence in the league, allowing just 74.8 yards per game on the ground. They have allowed an opposing running back to get over 50 yards on the ground just once all year.
They are doing that to the best runners in the league. The Riders have held each of the top five rushing leaders in the league to under 50 yards, with Winnipeg’s Brady Oliveira being the only back to even crack 40.
Oliveira was limited to 49 yards by the Riders in their Week 7 matchup. Since then he has been excellent with four straight 75+ yard games, including two games over the century mark. But the Riders’ defence is just a different beast.
Since that Week 7 game against Winnipeg, the Riders have faced some of the league’s elite. Walter Fletcher had just 30 yards in two games, giving him his second and third-lowest run totals of the year. Ryquell Armstead had 37 yards against Saskatchewan, his third-lowest total of the year. Most recently Ka’Deem Carey was held to just 35 yards, the second-fewest he’s had in a game all year. The only RB to figure out this Riders’ defence is Javon Leake, who went off for 169 yards in Tre Ford’s first start of the year.
The Under is an interesting play in this game, given that it has hit in Bombers games 10 of 11 times this year. Meanwhile, Saskatchewan’s offence has become predictable with their run-first game plan putting them in the bottom third of the league in yards gained on the first down. Second-and-long with an offensive line that is struggling is not a good combination.
But, it is Labour Day weekend on the prairies and things can get wild,so we’ll leave that one alone and go with a different under instead.
Pick: Brady Oliveira under 70.5 rushing yards
Monday, September 2: Toronto Argonauts at Hamilton Tiger-Cats — 2:30 p.m. EDT
The Toronto Argonauts head to Hamilton to start the fun on Labour Day with their classic all-Ontario matchup.
Hamilton got the better of the Argos in their first meeting of the season back in Week 7 with the Tabbies winning 27-24.
Since then the Double Blue have won three of four. Meanwhile, the Ticats have gone 1-4, with last weekend’s nail bitter against Winnipeg being the only loss that wasn’t by double-digits. In the five games they’ve played since the Toronto matchup, Hamilton has only had the lead going into halftime once with a -42 first-half point differential.
This is a different Toronto team than the one Hamilton beat in mid-July. Noticeably absent from that game were Chad Kelly and Folarin Orimolade.
Kelly returned from suspension last week to help the Argos beat the Riders at BMO Field. He certainly didn’t look like his M.O.P. self from a year ago but he still put up 322 yards and helped Damonte Coxie and David Ungerer III to their biggest receiving days of the year.
Kelly’s return should unlock a few more options in this Argos’ passing game. Kelly attempted 11 passes of 20 yards or more in his return to the field. That is already more than Nick Arbuckle had in three games and exactly half of what Cameron Dukes attempted in eight games.
He did that against a Saskatchewan defence that has allowed the third-fewest points per game in the league. This week, he faces a Hamilton defence that is last in that category.
Orimolade’s return should cause problems for the Ticats as well. Scott Milanovich has been preaching ball security to Bo Levi Mitchell in his return to the starting role and he was noticeably more conservative with the football last week against Winnipeg, snapping a string of five straight games with an interception.
With Orimolade and the rest of the Toronto defensive front in Bo’s face, it could be tough for the former M.O.P. not to go back to his old gun-slinger ways. Bo does lead the league in passing yards, but he is also even with Zach Collaros for most interceptions thrown this season.
Meanwhile, Bo’s former Stamps teammate Dashaun Amos has interceptions in back-to-back games and already has one interception against Mitchell this year. Last week, this defence picked off Trevor Harris twice to help spark their comeback win. In all, they have seven interceptions in their last five games, putting them second in the league in takeaways this year.
So, the Argos seem to have the edge when they have the ball, and their defence looks to have an advantage when Hamilton has the ball. What about special teams?
Well, Janarion Grant is awesome. He leads the league in total return yards (kick, punt, and missed field goal returns), with four majors this year and five returns of 30 yards or more.
The Ticats, on the other hand, have allowed the third-most yards per return in the league this year. Only Montreal has allowed more big play returns. Grant is 3.5-1 to score a TD at any time and 20-1 to score the first TD of the game. Both might be worth a look, but don’t quite qualify for “best bets.”
I know that home-field has been an advantage across the league this year but Hamilton has just one win in five games at Tim Hortons Field this year. Even though they have played one more game than the Argos, the Ti-Cats have only scored three more points than Toronto and they have given up 107 more than the Boatmen have.
As I said before, Labour Day can get wild. But the Argos have won the last two Labour Day games and it just feels like they stack up really well against Hamilton this year.
