It is Labour Day weekend eve north of the border and the CFL is seeing an influx of players returning from injuries, suspensions, and the NFL giving the league a fun mid-season shakeup.
I’m 4-1 in the last two weeks and have a couple of intriguing matchups on the card this week so let’s get to it.
Saturday, Aug. 24: B.C. Lions at Ottawa Redblacks — 7:00 p.m. EDT
Nathan Rourke and the Lions head into the nation’s capital to battle with the Redblacks on Saturday night, looking to bounce back from whatever that was last week against Winnipeg.
Rourke and company are hoping for the “it can’t get worse than that” bounce back this week after struggling against the Bombers. You would assume that will be the worst game Rourke plays all year, but it certainly didn’t give you many reasons to be optimistic.
The weapons he has to work with are fantastic, however, and he could get a favourable matchup. The Redblacks’ defence is better than it was a year ago but the secondary is still vulnerable to big plays.
Stampeders receiver Reggie Begelton caught a 50-yard bomb against the Ottawa defence last week, while Ishmael Hyman had a 45-yard reception and looked well on his way to another one before he was interfered with at the goal line. That should be music to the ears of Justin McInnis and Alex Hollins who are first and third in the league in receiving yards.
The Lions defence got back on track last week after getting thumped in back-to-back games against Edmonton and the aforementioned Bombers.
They’ll face an Ottawa offence that put up some good numbers against Calgary last week. Overall, though, this is a team that has struggled to put up points this season. They sit sixth in the league in points per game and only Winnipeg has scored fewer touchdowns than they have this year.
They might be due for a bit of a regression in the second half of the season, as Ottawa has only played two games against teams that are currently above .500 and are 0-1-1 in those games.
They beat Winnipeg before the Bombers got things going, Hamilton who are currently the worst team in the league, a pre-Tre Ford Edmonton team twice, and the Stampeders twice. Who knows whether Calgary is actually good or not, but our most recent power rankings have them at eighth so the current lean is more towards the “not side”.
Ottawa’s game with Calgary just got over the total last week, marking the first time the over has hit in a Redblacks game since Week 6 against Edmonton. Meanwhile, the under has hit in the last four Lions games. Even when the Leos were winning games at the beginning of the year, the under was 3-3.
I don’t know if Rourke will be at his full powers in this game, but he should be close enough to get the Lions across the finish line in what could be a low-scoring affair out east.
Pick: Lions -1 and under 50.5
Sunday, Aug. 25: Edmonton Elks at Montreal Alouettes — 7:00 p.m. EDT
The CFL’s top team plays host to one of its hottest as the Montreal Alouettes take on the Edmonton Elks to close out the week at Percival Molson Stadium.
Edmonton is riding its longest winning streak since Mike Reilly was their QB in 2019. Even with Tre Ford banged up last week, McLeod Bethel-Thompson returned to the starting lineup and led the charge, helping the Elks to their third straight win.
But that was against Hamilton, the defending Grey Cup champions are a completely different story. The Elks are on their first three-game winning streak in five years, the Als are on a four-game win streak for the first time since, well, earlier this season when they won five in a row to start the year.
Their most recent victory, a 27-24 win over Saskatchewan, was certainly aided by Brett Lauther’s four missed field goals, but it was the number of attempts he had that stood out. Montreal’s defence was in full “bend but don’t break” mode in Regina holding the Riders to seven field goal attempts, just two red zone trips, and just one touchdown from those ventures.
The Alouettes’ defence ranks second in points allowed per game, and third in net offence allowed. They have also given up the fewest passing touchdowns and the fewest plays of over 30 yards this season, while also boasting the second-best turnover differential in the league.
Defensive coordinator Noel Thorpe disguises his pressures and coverages very well and forces you into long drives, hoping you’ll make a mistake at some point. And Edmonton was very good at making those mistakes early in the season.
Whether Bethel-Thompson is back under centre or Ford makes his second glorious return of the season, the Elks’ offence could be in for a long game.
The three-week explosion for the Elks has pushed them to the top of the league in points per game and they are one of three teams in the west with a positive point differential, despite their 3-7 record. This isn’t a shot against them, Montreal’s defence is just different.
On the other side of the ball, this offence is electric whether Cody Fajardo or Davis Alexander is playing. Alexander and Fajardo are second and third in the league respectively in drives that end in touchdowns (only trailing Ford).
It seems unfair that this roster is going to get all-star receiver Austin Mack back because they have been excellent regardless of who plays. Tyson Philpot was putting up excellent numbers before his injury, sitting second in the league in receptions and receiving yards despite missing last week.
In his place, Miami Hurricanes alum Charleston Rambo had 11 receptions for 94 yards last week, following his 126 yards and two touchdown game from the week before.
The Als have scored the second most points per game in the league this season while Edmonton is in the bottom third of the CFL in points allowed, while also allowing the second most touchdowns in the CFL this season.
The Als have scored 27 or more points in three straight games and the over has hit in back-to-back contests. Meanwhile, Edmonton games have gone over the total in three of the last four. Montreal’s defence should be good enough to let the Als cover while their offence should do enough to send this game over the total.
Pick: Montreal -6.5 and over 51.5
