We’re set for a four-game slate in Week 14 of the Canadian Football League season, and below are our predictions for two of those contests.
Week 14 CFL betting odds and picks: Best bets for Montreal vs. Toronto, Calgary vs. Edmonton
We have an intriguing two-day, four-game schedule on tap in Week 14, with the CFL ceding both Thursday and Sunday to the debuting NFL this week. There are two spots where lines particularly caught my eye, including a rematch of one of the most exciting games of the season.
Sunday, Sept. 9: Montreal Alouettes at Toronto Argonauts – 1:00 p.m. EDT
This game carries the biggest spread of the weekend by far, and that’s fairly surprising to me considering a couple of different factors at play.
To begin with, the visiting Als enjoy a two-day rest advantage over the host Argos, who played on Labour Day. Additionally, Montreal does have the type of defence that can clamp down on opponents on occasion, having forced the second-most turnovers (27) while allowing the third-fewest touchdowns (25) and third-fewest first downs (206).
Toronto has been playing increasingly closer games of late, beginning with their only loss of the season, a 20-7 defeat at the hands of the Stamps in Week 9. The Argos then beat the Redblacks by 13 and went into the fourth quarter up by just 10 in Week 10. The Boatmen got past the Stamps by eight in Week 12 coming off a bye and then allowed the Ti-Cats to close to within 10 in the fourth quarter on Monday after they were up by 18.
The Argos’ pass defence continues to be one of the league’s most generous with 305.4 passing yards per game allowed on a CFL-high 71.7 percent completion rate. A veteran quarterback like Cody Fajardo, who could conceivably get back all of Kaion Julien-Grant (hand), Greg Ellingson (hip) and Reggie White Jr. (knee) this week, is more than capable of taking advantage and keeping any loss to 10 points or less.
The Pick: Alouettes +10.5 (-110 or better)
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Saturday, Sept. 9: Calgary Stampeders at Edmonton Elks – 7:00 p.m. EDT
These two teams face off in a rematch of an epic Week 13 battle that saw Calgary claw back from a 28-13 deficit entering the fourth quarter to escape with a 35-31 win.
The offensive fireworks in that game and both teams’ suspect defences unsurprisingly have helped lead to this game being assigned the second-highest total of the week. However, I’m of the view that there’s value in taking the Under.
The overriding reason for that prognosis is the fact that there’s no way either club will be at full strength. Having played the last game of the night Monday, both Calgary and Edmonton will be working on short rest and tired legs.
While that could favour offence to an extent, I think both teams as a whole will be a bit more subdued than during Monday’s wild affair, especially with the insight that comes with facing the same team twice in five days.
The Stamps will need to find a way to put the clamps on Elks’ QB Tre Ford after he ran them over to the tune of 135 yards on Monday. It’s a safe bet they’ll focus plenty of resources on doing just that.
There’s also a chance Calgary is down half of its vaunted 1-2 backfield punch. Dedrick Mills missed practice Thursday with a head injury after being limited Wednesday. Markeith Ambles, who’s been enjoying a growing role in the offence, was also limited Thursday with a knee injury.
For all the factors cited, I’m in the camp of the Under hitting in this spot.
The Pick: Under 48.5 points or less (-110 or better)
