We’re set for a four-game slate in Week 11 of the Canadian Football League season and below are our predictions for two of those contests.
Week 11 CFL betting odds and picks: Best bets for Montreal vs. Ottawa, B.C. vs. Saskatchewan
This week, we’ll focus on an Alouettes team that’s rather quietly built a 5-3 record and surrendered the second-fewest points in the league (155), and a Lions team that is lined up to record the biggest victory of the slate against a struggling Roughriders squad.
Saturday, August 19: Montreal Alouettes at Ottawa Redblacks – 7:00 p.m. EDT
It remains to be seen if QB Cody Fajardo (shoulder) will take the field after practicing in a limited fashion Tuesday and Wednesday, but this bet is largely operating under the assumption the veteran will be out there.
However, even if it’s ultimately Caleb Evans under center for Montreal for a second straight week, there should be plenty of opportunity for the Als’ offence to enjoy success. Evans has a solid amount of pro experience and can compile some production on the ground as well.
Meanwhile, the Redblacks’ defence remains one of the most vulnerable in the league. Ottawa has allowed the second-most total yards per game (376.4) — including a league-high 326 passing yards per contest — as well as 15 touchdown passes and 24 completions of 30 yards or more.
On the other side. Ottawa’s Dustin Crum bounced back in Week 10 with 292 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Argonauts.
However, the Als boast one of the league’s stingiest defences — Montreal has allowed a league-low 135 first downs, 12 touchdowns and 72.7 opponent passer efficiency rating, while also yielding a stingy 18.6 offensive points per contest.
Given the disparity in both defences, I like Montreal to escape with a win despite the road environment.
The Pick: Alouettes moneyline (-148 or better)
Sunday, August 20: B.C. Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders – 7:00 p.m. EDT
The Lions rebounded nicely from a Week 9 shellacking at the hands of the Blue Bombers when they thumped the Stampeders, 37-9, in Week 10.
The biggest factor certainly seemed to be the return of Vernon Adams Jr. from his knee injury. The mobile veteran threw for 322 yards and four touchdowns in the rout of Calgary.
Adams has eclipsed the 300-yard mark on four occasions overall this season, but there’s a good chance that much like last week, he can take his foot off the gas in the second half.
B.C. already led 27-6 by halftime versus the Stampeders. They now arguably face an even more overmatched Roughriders squad.
Saskatchewan is experiencing plenty of adversity at the all-important quarterback position and appears set to have to roll out Mason Fine (leg), Jake Dolegala or Antonio Pipkin for Sunday’s game.
The Lions are understandably the biggest favourite of the week at 9.5 points as of Thursday morning, and I could see them validating that status by exerting their will early.
Often lost in the glare of B.C.’s high-powered offence is how good the Lions’ defence has been.
They’re either tied for the lead or set the league pace in points per game allowed (17.0), offensive touchdowns allowed (11), net offensive yards per game allowed (284.0), offensive plays per game allowed (51.4) and opponent yards per play allowed (5.52).
Assuming the Lions once again jump out to an early lead, I see the first half as being the busiest for the scoreboard.
The Pick: 1st Half as Highest Scoring Half (-120 or better)