3DownNation CFL picks: can Stampeders run roughshod in B.C.’s packed dome?

After 21 weeks of hype and build-up, it’s finally time for the good stuff.

The 2022 CFL playoffs are slated to begin on Sunday, with two highly anticipated Division Semi-Finals. Out East, the surging Ticats take on the slow-and-steady Alouettes in a coin flip, while the Nathan Rourke-led Lions get ready for a shootout with Ka’Deem Carey’s Stampeders in the West. Neither game has a spread larger than 1.5 points, with even Vegas expecting thrilling down-to-the-wire football.

Just as they have throughout the regular season, our 3DownNation contributors will be giving you their picks for every matchup. As we enter the final three weeks of our own competition, Ryan Ballantine has sole control of both the straight-up and against-the-spread leaderboards.

East Division Semi-Final: Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Montreal Alouettes – 1:00 p.m. EST

Coming off victories in five of their final six games, the 8-10 Hamilton Tiger-Cats have suddenly become the hottest team in the CFL entering the postseason. With a solid defence and punishing runner Wes Hills in the backfield, they have the makings of a cinderella story — if quarterback Dane Evans can shake off his inconsistency in the playoffs, that is. Meanwhile, Montreal has ridden an early season coaching change right back to where they were before the move and are desperate to get past the first round for the first time in eight years. The Alouettes’ physical edge has been their strength to this point, but middle linebacker Micah Awe will be out of the lineup defensively and running back William Stanback has not yet found his stride since returning from injury. That means veteran pivot Trevor Harris and star receiver Eugene Lewis will likely have to do some heavy lifting at home.

DUNK: The Tiger-Cats continue to trend upwards at the right time in the CFL calendar. Wes Hills has played better than William Stanback of late and Hamilton has been flying around on defence. Also, I’ll take Orlondo Steinauer over Danny Maciocia in the playoffs. 

Straight-up: TICATS. Against the spread: TICATS.

HODGE: Hamilton is the CFL’s hottest team but Montreal has been more consistent over the course of the year, is more physical on defence, and will have a solid crowd behind them. This game can go either way but I’ll take the home side by a field goal.

Straight-up: ALS. Against the spread: ALS.

ABBOTT: Dane Evans has a much lower floor than Trevor Harris does but his ceiling is higher – just look at his perfect East Final last year or the Ticats’ upset win over Winnipeg. With Montreal’s propensity for allowing big plays in the passing game, this feels like a moment where Hamilton’s QB can pull a spectacular game out of thin air.

Straight-up: TICATS. Against the spread: TICATS.

BALLANTINE: Hamilton has been one of the best teams in the league down the stretch, finally playing a full 60 minutes. If they don’t regress to the early season Ticats, they should easily book a ticket to Toronto. 

Straight-up: TICATS. Against the spread: TICATS.

FILOSO: Trevor Harris’ experience, a heavy dose of William Stanback and a variety of exotic blitzes from Noel Thorpe’s defence should mean that the air horn guy will have a fun afternoon driving the rest of us insane.

Straight-up: ALS. Against the spread: ALS.

GASSON: A toss-up game if there ever was one. A few weeks ago, this probably would have been considered a cakewalk for Montreal. Not so much now, but I think they’ll still get it done. 

Straight-up: ALS. Against the spread: ALS.

HUDSON: I’m unable to trust which Dane Evans will show up to this game. That leaves me with Montreal as my only choice.

Straight-up: ALS. Against the spread: ALS.

LUDWIG: Consistency is what matters over the long haul and Trevor Harris has delivered that for the Alouettes. I give the edge to the less unpredictable team.

Straight-up: ALS. Against the spread: ALS.

MCGUIRE: Montreal had trouble with Hamilton even before the Tabbies found their mojo. I don’t like the Als’ chances now that the Ticats have that special elixir firmly in hand.

Straight-up: TICATS. Against the spread: TICATS.

SMITH: Both teams have good run games, good defences and quarterbacks that are difficult to trust. In fact, these two teams were so evenly matched this season that the total margin of victory in their three games was one point. That said, I am going to side with the team that has more big-game experience.

Straight-up: TICATS. Against the spread: TICATS.

TOTALS STRAIGHT-UP: Als 5, Ticats 4

TOTALS AGAINST THE SPREAD: Als 5, Ticats 5

West Division Semi-Final: Calgary Stampeders at B.C. Lions – 4:30 p.m. EST

These two West Division rivals battled their way to identical 12-6 records in 2022, but the Lions will play host with BC Place full to the brim thanks to their head-to-head tiebreaker. The first of two wins over the Stamps came in a 41-40 shootout with Nathan Rourke at the helm and the Canadian quarterback’s return to the lineup is the biggest storyline of the playoffs. The Lions will help him out with veteran receiver Bryan Burnham back in the lineup but have suffered major injuries elsewhere, with Lucky Whitehead on the shelf with a bum ankle and left tackle Joel Figueroa unavailable against the league’s best pass rush. For their part, the Stamps are getting deep threat Malik Henry back in their receiving corps but don’t expect him to be the focal point. That will be their dominant rushing attack led by Ka’Deem Carey and Dedrick Mills, both of whom look like a bad matchup for the Lions’ defence.

DUNK: Nathan Rourke inside BC Place on his own visualizing makes me think he’s ready to return to his gunslinging ways. However, with Joey Figs and Lucky Whitehead sidelined it’s a much tougher task to oust the Stamps. Calgary’s rushing attack can control the game while the defence gets after Rourke. 

Straight-up: STAMPS. Against the spread: STAMPS.

HODGE: Calgary would win this game in a walk at McMahon Stadium but they are not a dome team. The Lions are high-flying on offence and have arguably the league’s best secondary. Add in the huge crowd and B.C. takes it at home.

Straight-up: LIONS. Against the spread: LIONS.

ABBOTT: I don’t think there is a world in which the Stampeders don’t run all over the Lions’ defence, so the question becomes whether B.C.’s offence can do enough to stop Calgary from handing off. No matter the injury or his performance last week, I refuse to bet against Nathan Rourke when he’s playing – let alone when it’s happening in front of a packed house.

Straight-up: LIONS. Against the spread: LIONS.

BALLANTINE: Rourke played incredibly, pulling his team to a late-game comeback in his start against Calgary. However, he wasn’t playing against a healthy Stampeders’ backfield. This game could be incredible. 

Straight-up: STAMPS. Against the spread: STAMPS.

FILOSO: Amar Doman has put a ton of effort into selling tickets — take a hint, MLSE — and it pays off with a massive home crowd. Feeding off that energy, Rourke and company put on a show, earning a date with the Bombers in Winnipeg. 

Straight-up: LIONS. Against the spread: LIONS.

GASSON: The CFL really could use a Nathan Rourke bump throughout the playoffs. He drew eyeballs early. This should be one heck of a game but I think Calgary does what you need to win in the payoffs. 

Straight-up: STAMPS. Against the spread: STAMPS.

HUDSON: Calgary looks to be fielding their most complete roster yet, especially in the secondary — which spent most of the year looking like a training camp roster. B.C. is missing some key pieces and other important names just got back from injury.

Straight-up: STAMPS. Against the spread: STAMPS.

LUDWIG: He’s done the incredible before and he will do it again. In Rourke we trust! Unconditionally.

Straight-up: LIONS. Against the spread: LIONS.

MCGUIRE: Jake Maier has had months to get cranked up while Nathan Rourke has not. However, B.C. does have Vernon Adams Jr. as insurance and a dome field advantage. Calgary’s run game won’t be as critical indoors.

Straight-up: LIONS. Against the spread: LIONS.

SMITH: This game is going to be outstanding and while Calgary has the horses to pull off the upset, I am choosing to ride the Nathan Rourke wave until he gives me a reason not to. Rourke vs. Collaros for a trip to the Grey Cup? Yes, please!

Straight-up: LIONS. Against the spread: LIONS.

TOTALS STRAIGHT-UP: Lions 6, Stamps 4

TOTALS AGAINST THE SPREAD: Lions 6, Stamps 4