Week 9 CFL predictions | expect points from Bombers vs. Als and Elks vs. Lions?

CFL Week 9 picks

We power into Week 9 of what is turning out to be a very exciting 2022 Canadian Football League season, with fans continuing to enjoy access to legalized wagering at the many regulated Ontario sportsbooks. Below, we’re previewing each matchup and making our Week 9 CFL picks!

Week 9 CFL betting odds

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CFL Week 9 predictions | betting picks for each game

We’re back to a three-day slate in Week 9 and oddsmakers are projecting some relatively comfortable victories for the favorites. There are also some points expected, as two of the four games have totals north of 50 projected points. Below, we’ll dive into the odds and analysis for each game.

Thursday, August 4: Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes – 7:30 p.m. EDT

The Blue Bombers continue to find a way to get it done each week, despite the fact they’re actually being outgained in net offence by a little over 10 yards per game on average.

However, Zach Collaros has frequently shown off his veteran savvy when it’s counted the most, with Winnipeg checking in second in second-down conversion rate (51.7 percent), average yards per pass (9.0), passing TDs (15) and passer efficiency rating (111.1).

The Alouettes are a relatively tough pass defence by the numbers, but Winnipeg has also started to thrive in the running game of late to give the offence some much-needed balance.

Lead back Brady Oliveira has furnished a 28-172 line on the ground over the last two games, and Montreal is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (107.0) at 5.1 yards per carry.

On the other side, Montreal will have Trevor Harris available for this matchup after he exited on the penultimate play of the Week 8 loss to the Tiger-Cats due to a back injury.

Harris continues to show outstanding chemistry with veteran wideout Eugene Lewis in particular, but he’s likely to throw into plenty of crowded passing windows considering the combination of the inconsistency of his team’s William Stanback-less rushing attack and Winnipeg’s ability to limit opportunities on the ground (83.5 rush yards per game allowed).

The total here isn’t overly high, and despite each team’s defence having the ability to force imbalance on offence from the opposition, there’s plenty of veteran talent on both sides. With the Over 5-2 in the Als’ games as well, we’ll roll with it again for Montreal’s home matchup.

The Pick: Over 47.5 points (play up to -115)

Friday, August 5: Calgary Stampeders at Ottawa Redblacks– 7:30 p.m. EDT

The Stampeders’ only two losses have come against the defending champion Blue Bombers, and Calgary has a +43 point differential. However, the opposing Redblacks have just a -26 metric in that category despite an ugly 1-6 mark, a testament to the fact five of their losses have been by a combined 21 points.

Calgary is coming off those back-to-back defeats, and even in victory, has had a difficult time separating. Much like Ottawa’s losses have almost been exclusively close, the Stampeders are just 2-4 against the spread due to the fact three of their four wins are by a combined 13 points.

The Redblacks offence is thriving under the stewardship of Caleb Evans, who’s accumulated 583 passing yards and three touchdowns in his last two games alone and rushed for 145 and four touchdowns over his three-game starting stint.

The Stampeders aren’t ranked in the top half of the league in either rushing yards (95.2) or passing yards (280.8) per game allowed. Calgary has also conceded the second-most touchdown passes (11), and Ottawa has scored 79 points to their opponents’ 78 in Evans’ three-game starting stint.

The Over on 50.5 points is tempting in this spot given that the Redblacks’ defence also appears vulnerable by the numbers, but that’s largely driven by a couple of slip-ups against the high-flying Lions and the Alouettes. Ottawa has actually held three other opponents under 20 points.

Therefore, I’m more in the camp of the Redblacks slipping in under the 5.5-point number, and their 3-3-1 ATS mark combined with the Stamps’ 2-4 record versus the spread further fuels the belief of a close game.

The Pick: Redblacks +5.5 (play up to -115)

Saturday, August 6: Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Toronto Argonauts – 7:00 p.m. EDT

The Ti-Cats have played strong defence all season but have been done in at times by the inconsistent play of Dane Evans under center.

Head coach Orlondo Steinauer may have found a way to reel in his erratic signal-caller a bit by giving him the occasional breather – he subbed in Matthew Shiltz at times in a Week 8 win versus Montreal and both players remained interception-free over 28 pass attempts.

Hamilton now gets a shot at an Argonauts defence that’s yielded a robust 272.7 passing yards per game at a 72.1 percent completion rate and that’s ranked in the bottom 3 of the league in both sacks (14) and interceptions (6).

The Argonauts have seen their own veteran signal-caller, McLeod Bethel-Thompson, have trouble with turnovers at times.

While he’s been especially efficient with a 73.2 percent completion rate, the matchup on paper for him is the opposite of Evans’ and Shiltz’s – Hamilton is allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game (260.9), along with the second-lowest completion percentage (64.5) and second lowest average yards per pass (7.8).

Factoring in the Ti-Cats are also tied for the second-most interceptions (8) and for the most 2-and-outs forced (41) this season – plus the fact that Hamilton has held its last three opponents to 23 points or fewer – I’ll roll with the Under instead of trying to thread the needle on a very narrow -2 spread in favor of the hosts.

The Pick: Under 45.5 points (play up to -115)

Saturday, August 6: Edmonton Elks at BC Lions – 10:00 p.m. EDT

The Elks finally get another shot at the team that humiliated them by a 59-15 score back in Week 1, and there’s no question Edmonton has played much more competitively since that season-opening debacle.

Despite some instability at quarterback and James Wilder’s presence on the injured list due to a shoulder issue, the Elks have bounced back to go 2-4 and suffer only one other lopsided loss. Otherwise, Chris Jones’ squad dropped games by 10, 7 and 14 points to the talented trio of a healthy Roughriders team in Week 2, the Stampeders and the Blue Bombers.

Edmonton also has wins over the Ti-Cats and Alouettes since Week 1, and young quarterback Taylor Cornelius has been more than adequate over his first two starts with 500 passing yards and another 79 on the ground.

The Lions followed up that 44-point win over the Elks in the opener with an even more impressive 41-point thrashing of the Argos where they held Toronto to three points.

However, they’ve looked a bit more human since, edging the Redblacks and Ti-Cats by a combined eight points and managing to pull away in the second half against a hurting Roughriders team to notch a 15-point win in Week 8.

The Elks are still ranked last in points per game (34.9) and yards per play (7.3) allowed. BC’s defence is ranked highly in virtually every metric, but the Lions did give up 31 and 43 points in back-to-back weeks to Ottawa and Winnipeg and the Elks should be fresh coming off a Week 8 bye.

The Over is a combined 9-4 in these two teams’ games, and for all their dominance in a couple of contests, the Lions are just 3-2-1 ATS. As such, a roll of the dice on a parlay with a great price that bets on the Elks playing competitively and some points being scored is in order.

The Pick: Same-Game Parlay: Elks +10.5 and Over 51.5 (+256 or better)

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