Breaking down Bodog’s 2016 regular season win prop bets

Popular sports gambling website Bodog.ca released their lines for its 2016 team-by-team regular season win prop bets. Regardless of one’s interest in gambling, the lines Bodog has set serve as an interesting talking point for fans around the league.

Below is my analysis of each line, along with a pick of over or under.

BC Lions: over (-125)/under (-105) 8.5 wins

The Lions’ national talent is underwhelming and there are questions about Khari Jones’ abilities as an offensive coordinator. Still, BC’s success this season will largely be determined by the play of sophomore pivot Jonathon Jennings. After bursting onto the CFL scene as a rookie last year, Jennings will have to continue evolving his game now that opposing teams have an adequate amount of his game film to study. I can see the Lions reaching .500, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Hodge’s pick: Under

Calgary Stampeders: over (-115)/under (-115) 11.5 wins

The Stampeders will inevitably falter one of these years, but I’m skeptical it will happen in 2016. Mike Benevides improved upon the Lions’ win total in his first season as BC’s head coach (11 wins under Buono in 2011, 13 wins under Benevides in 2012) and, while I don’t believe Calgary will improve upon its 14-win mark from a season ago, I don’t expect the club will falter in Dave Dickenson’s first year wearing the big headset. 16-2 is no longer a realistic mark for the Stamps, but 12-6 is well within reach.

Hodge’s pick: Over

Edmonton Eskimos: over (-130)/under (even) 11.5 wins

With all due respect to the defending champions, I find this line a little steep. Jason Maas, well-respected as he is, is an unproven head coach with just four years of coaching experience to his name. The Esks lost arguably their two best defensive players to the NFL this off-season (defensive back Aaron Grymes, Philadephia Eagles; linebacker/defensive back Dexter McCoil, San Diego Chargers), while the transition from Chris Jones’ defensive scheme to that of Mike Benevides could be a tricky to navigate. I believe the Eskimos will be a playoff team this season — I just don’t believe they’ll reach twelve wins.

Hodge’s pick: Under

Saskatchewan Roughriders: over (-125)/under (-105) 7.5 wins

The Riders are the biggest unknown heading into the 2016 season. How far can Chris Jones stretch the talent on his limited roster? Can Darian Durant still be an effective CFL quarterback? Do the Riders have seven starting-quality Canadians? Will John Chiles recapture his 2013 form? These questions won’t be answered until late in the season, but, for right now, I believe this line is in the perfect spot. Take the under to avoid the -125 return.

Hodge’s pick: Under

Winnipeg Blue Bombers: over (+105)/under (-135) 6.5 wins

This line is the juiciest of the bunch for betting fans. If the 2014 Blue Bombers were able to finish 7-11 with Marcel Bellefeuille and Gary Etcheverry running Winnipeg’s offensive and defensive units, the 2016 Blue Bombers have no business recording six wins or fewer. Winnipeg is hardly a Grey Cup favourite, but the over should be a safe bet here. The +105 return is just gravy.

Hodge’s pick: Over

Hamilton Tiger-Cats: over (-125)/under (-105) 10.5 wins

This line was clearly affected by the announcement that Zach Collaros will not be ready to start the 2016 regular season earlier this month. Until a clearer timeline of Collaros’ recovery is made available, I’d avoid wagering on this line.

Hodge’s pick: Push

Toronto Argonauts: over (-105)/under (-125) 10.5 wins

Boasting arguably the best Canadian talent in the league and a suitable home in BMO Field, there is no reason why the Argonauts can’t win at least eleven games in 2016. Ricky Ray is healthy for the first time in two seasons and, with Rich Stubler back to lead the Boatmen’s defence, I believe this club could finish as strong as 12-6.

Hodge’s pick: Over

Ottawa Redblacks: over (-125)/under (-105) 9.5 wins

Like Saskatchewan’s, I believe this line is in the perfect spot. The addition of Trevor Harris behind Henry Burris stabilizes Ottawa’s quarterback situation nicely, but losing nationals Keith Shologan and Justin Capicciotti in free agency was a huge hit to the Redblacks’ Canadian content. I can see the Redblacks finishing at or below .500 this year — a repeat of their 12-6 record from a season ago is out of the question in my opinion — but I think they can still win ten contests.

Hodge’s pick: Over

Montreal Alouettes: over (-115)/under (-115) 7.5 wins

Picking the Alouettes to finish dead last in the CFL this season has been a trendy prognostication as of late. While I think the Als will win some games in 2016 — they have some explosive weapons on offence, along with very good offensive and defensive lines — I can’t say I expect Montreal to be in the play-off picture come November. I believe Montreal will win at least five games in 2016, but eight W’s is too tall an order.

Hodge’s pick: Under

Which lines do you believe are set too high or too low? Share your thoughts in the comment section below.

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