Lucky 7: The East Division Playoff Scenarios (& the West’s too)

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The Hamilton Tiger-Cats, Ottawa Redblacks and Toronto Argonauts are locked in a three-way battle for seeding in the East Division. Only Hamilton and Ottawa can finish first but Toronto could finish as high as second and host a playoff game. Here are the scenarios (as I understand them, anyway):

Scenario 1

• Hamilton wins both their remaining games over the Ottawa.

• Toronto win both or split their remaining games over B.C. and Winnipeg.

Result: Hamilton (12 wins) finishes first in the division, get a first round bye, host the East Final. Toronto (11 or 10 wins) finish second and host the third place Ottawa (10 wins) as Toronto holds the tie-breaker over Ottawa (2-0 head-to-head record.)

Scenario 2

• Hamilton wins both their remaining games over the Ottawa.

• Toronto lose both their remaining games over B.C. and Winnipeg.

Result: Hamilton (12 wins) finishes first in the division. Ottawa (10 wins) finishes second and hosts third place Toronto (9 wins).

Scenario 3

• Hamilton split the two remaining games with Ottawa.

• Toronto win both their remaining games over B.C. and Winnipeg.

Result: All three teams finish with 11 wins and tie breaker is aggregate record between the three teams. Hamilton (4-1) finishes first in the division. Toronto (2-3) finishes second and hosts third place Ottawa (1-3).

Scenario 4

• Hamilton splits the two remaining games with Ottawa but has the better point differential in those contests.

• Toronto splits or loses their remaining games over B.C. and Winnipeg.

Result: Hamilton (11 wins) finishes first in the division because of point differential advantage in the two games vs Ottawa. Ottawa (11 wins) finish second and host the third place Toronto (10 or 9 wins).

Scenario 5

• Hamilton splits the two remaining games with Ottawa but has the worse point differential in those contests.

• Toronto splits or loses their remaining games over B.C. and Winnipeg.

Result: Ottawa (11 wins) finishes first in the division because of point differential advantage in the two games vs. Hamilton. Hamilton (11 wins) finishes second and hosts third place Toronto (10 or 9 wins).

Scenario 6

• Hamilton loses the two remaining games with Ottawa.

• Toronto splits or loses their remaining games over B.C. and Winnipeg.

Result: Ottawa (12 wins) finishes first in the division. Hamilton (10 wins) finishes second and hosts third place Toronto (10 or 9 wins) as Hamilton has the tie-breaker over Toronto (3-0 head-to-head record.)

Scenario 7

• Hamilton loses the two remaining games with Ottawa.

• Toronto wins their remaining games over B.C. and Winnipeg.

Result: Ottawa (12 wins) finishes first in the division. Toronto (11 wins) finishes second and hosts the third place Hamilton (10 wins.)

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First, second and third place in the West are all undecided. Edmonton and Calgary can still claim first in the East, while three teams (B.C., Winnipeg and Montreal via cross over) are still in the running for the third and final playoff spot.

First place in the West

Scenario 1.

• Edmonton wins final game vs. Montreal, Calgary wins remaining two games (vs. Saskatchewan, at B.C.)

Result: Edmonton (14 wins) finishes first in West Division, earns first-round, hosts West Final. Calgary (14 wins) finishes second due to head-to-head record vs. Edmonton (1-2) and hosts either B.C. or Montreal in West Semi-Final.

Scenario 2

• Edmonton loses final game vs. Montreal. Calgary wins remaining two games (vs. Saskatchewan, at B.C.)

Result: Calgary (14 wins) finishes first in West Division, Edmonton (13 wins) finishes second.

Scenario 3

• Edmonton wins final game vs. Montreal, Calgary splits remaining two games (vs. Saskatchewan, at B.C.)

Result: Edmonton (14 wins) finishes first in West Division, Calgary (13 wins) finishes second.

Third place in the West

Scenario 1

• B.C. wins remaining two games (at Toronto, vs. Calgary.)

Result: B.C. (8 wins) finishes third, travels to either Calgary or Edmonton for West Semi-Final.

Scenario 2:

• B.C. loses or splits remaining two games (at Toronto, vs. Calgary.)

• Montreal wins two remaining games (at Edmonton, vs. Saskatchewan.)

Result: Montreal (8 wins) crosses over into the West ahead of B.C. (7 or 6 wins), travels to either Calgary or Edmonton for West Semi-Final.

Scenario 3

• Winnipeg wins remaining game (at Toronto.)

• B.C. and Montreal lose both their remaining games.

Result: Winnipeg (7 wins) finishes ahead of B.C. (6 wins) and Montreal (6 wins) for third in the West, travels to either Calgary or Edmonton for West Semi-Final.

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